Good morning everyone, 06/17
Stocks go down, stocks go up.
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Week of Ages, week of Ages, week of Ages. Wow, wow, wow. Crazy, crazy, crazy, crazy. SMCI is up 13, it's trying to run. Very simple: 881 starts it, 891 accelerates it, 909 explodes it. Wow. Okay, interesting, interesting, interesting.
Then we see ARM trying to go. Looks like it's being added on Friday, so they will have to buy it. How far do they take it? 172, 181 if it goes. And AVGO, those ones we bought at $5 are 120 right now. So, did you sell them at 50 like Sam, or are you holding them to 120? Okay, I mean complete insanity. Runner, Runner.
First Solar, how about FSLR? Last week it hit 306 and it drops 33. It's going to be buyable here pretty soon. Now, why didn't we add more stuff for this week? We have SMCI, we have TSLA, but that's about it. We're sitting there. So, why didn't we add more stuff?
Okay, I mean, trying to get you guys to learn and think like a good trader. Come on, type it in. Why did Sam not add stuff?
Exactly, it's a short week. Let's say you bought a call or put, either one, and it went against you. If it went the other way, so let's say you bought SMCI (we bought them earlier, we didn't buy on Friday), but say you bought SMCI and it goes against you. Well, now Wednesday is closed, so you don't have enough time to get back. That's why you don't buy into Friday. Outside of that, we would have bought a bunch of stuff. I would have bought AVGO. I was about to buy AVGO at 20, I didn't buy it because I said if it opens down it won't make it. So, that's why you don't do it. That's calculation on risk, that's how you manage risk.
Okay, two things very important here. ASML was at 1050 when I woke up and the last time it opened up like this it exploded, so see if this rips through 1056. Very interesting if it does, then Lam Research goes too. Then we see, then we see, then we see. Okay, so that's what we know. Wednesday's closed. Very interesting. Very rarely do you get a market closed on a day, just a random day. Not a random day from June, just a random day like a Wednesday. Usually, it's a Friday or Monday or something like that. Okay, so just understand that. Interesting, interesting, interesting. So that's what we have. Very straightforward today. Let's see what happens.
Now, there are a lot of dumpy people. I keep telling you, I'm telling you the single biggest contributing factor of people losing money: there are two things. One is you lie to yourself. You say, "Oh, I have $10,000, I'm going to put buy a $2,000 position because oh, this one's moving, I'm going to go put in a $2,000 position. If it goes down three, I'll sell it." Then it goes down four and you say, "Oh, let me wait a second," and now it's down eight. Now you say, "Well, now I lost too much, I'm just going to wait," and then you get destroyed. And you know something? When you get destroyed enough, you quit taking risks. So that's your fault and you deserve to get killed. When you get killed after you get killed 20 times and then wifey beats you with whatever she beats you with, then you stop doing dumb stuff. You stop lying to yourself. Okay, that's one thing, that's the single biggest thing. But there's one more, and this didn't occur way back when, but it occurs now: following dumb people. I mean dumb, ignorant, stupid, clueless people on Twitter. I'm telling you, I saw yesterday 15 people saying, "Oh, we're in for a correction." I'm just laughing. "We're in for a correction? Why? We got to correct because we went up? Really? Oh, we went up so we got to correct." I mean, this is dumb. Some guy out there saying 3,300 SPX. I mean, he's dumb. He should have zero followers. Only a complete idiot is following these people.
Okay, so just understand this: don't do this because they say stuff and it goes into your subconscious. Okay, don't let it go into your subconscious and you do dumb stuff. People are like, "Oh, you should take profits on all." You take profits when it's time to take profits. You take profits based on your account, you take profits based on your goal. You don't take profits on "Oh, SPX is up so I'm taking profits." What the hell is that? Nvidia. People keep telling you, "Oh, NVDA dead, Nvidia's dead." It goes up a dollar and a half every day. AAPL. "Oh, Apple's up too much, you got to take profit." Why? Why? If you own the stock or you own the option, you roll up. I mean, not rocket science. Okay, very simple, very, very simple. And you expect zero, and you become a great trader. But I'm telling you, this guy with 700,000 followers. Every single day he says a crash is coming. Every single day. Go back two and a half years on his tweets and he's saying we're going to crash, we're going to crash every single day. Now, if I wanted to get a million followers, I'd just have to change my picture to a picture of a hot girl and every day I got to say there's a crash and I'll get 700,000 followers. How stupid are these people? I mean, ignorant. Okay, don't do that. People are like, "Oh, I said SMCI is going to crash, it just dropped three but it's sitting there. Did some news come out here? No news. Uh, okay. Uh, so interesting, interesting. So, so that's what you have.
Now, you have two other things this week. You have expiration week. On expiration week, every single expiration week, go back and look for the last two years, you have one bad day. One day where the SPX goes down at least 30-40 points. Now, the part I didn't say on public Twitter because I don't give them all the information, just give them little teasers, because if they don't want to sign up, too bad. Okay, every single expiration week you have one bad day, but half the time it comes back all the way back that day. That's what I didn't tell them. So it may go down 30 or 40, but then it goes back up. So now, what's the cause of this? It's called SPX roll, guys. So you have futures, you have all these options expiring June, right, and end of the month. And on expiration day, this time it's expiration week here, those are SPX roll starts today the 17th, ends on the 21st. So those options go away. So if you're a fund and you say, "I'm going to hedge with SPX up or down," you have bought these options, they expire, so you have to sell them and then you take that money and you roll to the next three months out. Okay, so that means at some point when they start selling, you have this rush down and that's what causes the down. Okay, they don't buy it first and then sell it down. They sell it and then they buy it. So you have this whorl. Now, I can't tell you if it's today, tomorrow. I can guarantee you that DROP doesn't happen on Wednesday. Okay guys, so quiz number two for today. Why is there zero chance that we go down on Wednesday? Why is it zero chance we go down on Wednesday? If you don't have the answer to this, come on guys, come on.
Oh, because the market's closed. Can't go down if the market's closed, guys. Can't go down, come on. Very, very simple. I mean, come on. I mean, how do I get like four responses and the other 200-300 people are like, "Oh, I don't know, I don't know." Come on. Come on, very, very, very straightforward. Okay, so pay attention. That's what we know. That's what we know. That's what we know. And then we see, then we see, then we see. So that's what's going on this week. Expect it down. I don't know when. And then expect to pop back up. And then we see. And now remember, then we got the end of the month coming and we got Vegas coming. And Vegas is going to be insane. It's going to be insane. Now, can you imagine if we catch like an Avago type of trade in Vegas? People be dancing on tables and who knows, like, just then we have to stop the streaming because people can't be watching that stuff, you know? Know what happens in Vegas, you know? Okay, anyway, so that I'm just joking. Okay, so that, that's what we know. That's what we know.
Okay, let's get started. SPX, uh, what was it doing? It was doing nothing. It's down three. SPX is down three every single day. SPX is down five or 10 or 15 and shorts, the same dumbass people on Twitter, "We're going to crash day, today's crash day, today's crash day. Everything's bad, world's bad, things bad." Really? Everything is good. The Fed is telling you everything is good.
Okay, you got 5421, 5249, 5382, 5382 if that day, the selloff day comes. Okay, and then back up. Okay, upside 5452.
AVGO 1822, 1900.
ADBE 531 up, 481 down.
NVDA 135 up, that puts it at 1350. Wow. 128 down and then 119.
ASML 1051, 1056, 1066. Underneath 1021.
LRCX Lam Research 1056.
CRWD CrowdStrike is being bought on Friday, I believe. 391, 399.
GME, I believe their shareholder meeting is happening. I don't know. 29, 36.
CAT Caterpillar, put it on the screen because it's been moving a little bit. 326, 319.
AAPL Apple 221, how exact was the 221 number Sam? Very exact.
FSLR, if it gets down to 268 or 267, going to be buying next week's. Okay.
ENPH Enphase 121.
ARM 166.
CVNA Carvana 109.
MSTR MicroStrategy needs 72,000 on Bitcoin.
COIN Coinbase can't get through 266.
SMCI, this one has a mind of its own and if it gets going it's going to rip faces and it's going to be fun. No, 736, 752.
TSLA Tesla, interesting, interesting. All this stuff Elon, five years ago if he said we're going to be a 30 trillion dollar company, the stock's up a hundred. Now everybody says he's lying because he hasn't. I like Elon and he's got great vision, but he has never given you one date that's remotely accurate. He has not given you one in the history of his life. He hasn't given you one date that's remotely accurate and that's what the market has a problem with. Okay, "Oh, we're going to have autonomous in 2021." It's 2024 and you're not going to have it till 2030. "Oh, we're gonna have robots." Now I believe he's going to have robots, I just don't know when. I believe he's going to have robots, I just don't know when. Okay, and I believe Tesla will be worth a lot more, I just don't know when they start believing him. Okay, but when it moves, when we get a Sam gets an inkling that a robot is three months away, six months away, we're going to buy a lot of Tesla stock.
And then we see, then we see.
Okay, that's what we know. That's what we know. Everybody have a great trading day. See you in Vegas, see you in Vegas, see you in Vegas, see you in chat. Bye.
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Weekly Plan 06.17.24