Stocks go up, stocks go down.
Going to Vegas tomorrow, then we see, then we see.
Interesting, interesting. $NVDA turned around. If $NVDA rips through 126, everything is going to explode into the end of the week. If $NVDA goes back down under 116, right back down. That's the market you have.
Okay, we're doing less because I’m going to be on a plane tomorrow. So, going to be on a plane tomorrow during the market. I'll try and get on. Maybe it will be on, maybe the Wi-Fi and stuff works, maybe it doesn't, who knows. And then we'll see, right? So, you definitely do not go open $100,000 positions and not have access and get whacked. You don't do that. Okay, so then we see, then we see, then we see. Very interesting.
Where does $SMCI go if $NVDA gets better and it takes out 126? Probably goes all the way back to 140, and it's a fast move. Okay, so that's what we know, that's what we know, that's what we know, that's what we know.
Okay, so what happened yesterday? The techs went down. Now we told you right away the $NDX was weak, right? The $NDX was weak. You can tell in the first five minutes if the $NDX is weak or the $NDX is strong. Then you can play that if you want to play that. Those 1-5 to 25 right, they went 5 to 25. Huge, huge, huge winner today. $SPX is up 11. The $SPX continues to go up. There's some rotation, but there's a lot of dumb people in the world. These dumb people are like, "Oh, we need to rotate. These other companies are going to do good."
Why is some garbage company trading at $10 or $15 going to do good, and you're going to sell $NVDA? What? Why? Why does anybody in the world think $AMD is going to do better than $NVDA in the next two years? Now, maybe $NVDA goes down, but if $NVDA, let me tell you, if $NVDA were to guide down, it would be down 20 to 30 points in one day, but $AMD would be down 20 to 30 points in one day. They will destroy $AMD. If you're not going to buy the best stuff, what if $NVDA cuts prices by 25%? $AMD is under 100. It's probably 50 bucks, 50 bucks, and it doesn't come back for 10 years, for 10 years. Okay, so understand this. If you buy garbage second-tier, third-tier, fourth-tier companies, when they crash, you crash. Happens all the time. I mean, people keep—I mean, look at Kramer over here. "Oh, I like $GM better than $TSLA." Tesla, if @ElonMusk says I'm selling a robot, it's going to be up 100 points. If $GM says I sold double the amount of cars, it's up two, three points. @jimcramer doesn't understand the fact.
Here's the fact that Cramer doesn't understand. I like the guy. $GM declared bankruptcy. If a company declares bankruptcy—let's say you own the company. You're, I don't know, you're a big fund, and you own $GM. They screwed you. They declared bankruptcy, and you got whacked. Are you ever going to buy it again? You're never going to buy it again. Come on, just because they go bankruptcy, you think it's a clean company? Come on. This is what people don't understand. This is why analysts are complete idiots. You’re going to love me in Vegas, man. You just see when Sam types stuff all day long, but you gotta imagine when you get a chance to trade with me and people are in my house trading with me and stuff, I talk all day long. I talk all kinds of stuff. So it's pretty funny. You're gonna have a good time. So, so interesting, interesting. That's what we know, that's what we know.
Now, we have a PCE which is coming too on Friday. If that PCE comes in low, we can rocket $SPX up, everything. Okay, but just understand today you have—so I heard this 50 billion is not done to sell. It's still out there. I don't know how much, but it's still out there. That means I think the huge move up, and I think we got a massive move up coming, but that move up comes Monday, Tuesday of next week. Okay, so just understand that, and this is nice. So it's set up.
Somebody sent me a message yesterday saying, "Oh, $GME is ready." I'm like, $GME is ready? Guys, here's premium 101. $GME two weeks ago, at the money $11. We sold the 40s at $10, 15 points out of the money. We sold them for $10. Right now, a dollar out of the money is 75 cents. He doesn't think this sucker can even move 50 cents. He doesn't even think $GME can move up 50 cents. Option Premiums tell you the story, and I'm going to explain a lot about this at the event. Now, we will record it. It will be out there for three days, and then we're going to delete that piece of it. It won't be there. You won't get to listen to it again, and that's it. Why? Because everybody and their mother is going to want to know it, and because it's that amazing. Sam figured it out many years ago. It makes Sam who he is, and it's going to be that good. And we'll also have microphones, and people can go around all day long trading. You don't even have to be trading, asking questions, and then we see, then we see, then we see.
Okay, and that's what we know.
So today is very straightforward to me.
Today is if $NVDA can pop, everybody's going to say I want in, and then 126 breaks, and you're off to the races. And if they say no, and they start the sell again, it gets to 119 and the 116, and then things go back down. $SMCI, very interesting play here. Keep an eye on the 1100 for 7/26 expiration. Okay, so $SMCI historically two weeks before earnings, somewhere in the two-week range, they pre-announce and they guide. Last time they didn't do it, so they took it down. So two weeks before the tentative earning date, somewhere at the end of the month or next month, it will get you that. 7/26, if it's good, it's at the high of the year. High of the year, that takes it to 1200. So they're 17, takes you to 100, probably 150. If they're bad, you lose 17. Okay, so we haven't done them yet, just watching it, waiting, waiting, waiting.
Jim Cramer said something on $CMG yesterday, probably true. They're giving you 50 shares for every one share. So if you have 50 shares, say you had 10 shares, and now you have 500 shares, you're going to sell a bunch of them, and that's what I say because it's not going to move anymore. On days that move $10, it's going to be moving 20 cents. Think about that. How is it playable? Not right, so that's what we know.
$ASML today, again, it was at 995, 995. It's up a little bit now, but it was down 7. Every single day at 3:00 a.m., it's down 7 to 20 every single day. But the one day, I'm telling you, watch this. If you guys want to set your alarm, write a program, capture the quote at 3:00 a.m., right when it opens. The first day it opens up 10, it's going to move 50, and Sam's going to make a killing. Just got to wait. Don't know when it's going to happen. At some point, it's going to happen, and then we see, then we see, then we see. The beauty of premiums, the beauty of the 3:00 a.m. numbers that nobody knows about, and we'll talk about all this stuff.
Okay, so that's what we know. Okay, let's get started.
Good morning, good morning, everybody. 6/25.
Stocks go up, stocks go down.
$SPX up 9. $SPX continues to be relatively strong. $NASDAQ was weak yesterday. It's stronger today. It's going to be up 60 versus nine $SPX. So not super strong. If it was up 100 and $SPX was up 10, then I'd say very strong. Not super strong. Okay, so hard to still play it to the upside. Okay, so interesting, interesting. Then we see, then we see, then we see. Okay, you got 5463, 5472, 5500, 5509. Underneath 5409, bad.
$AVGO not up enough. This needs to get to 1650. If it can get to 1650, an $NVDA stockholders meeting takes it up tomorrow, then this has a chance for a 100-point day. And then we see, then we see. So wait, wait, wait, wait. Chill, wait, chill.
$NVDA 122, 126. Under 116, bad.
$ASML 1077. Long way up, but it's about this stock. It's all about opening up, and it doesn't do that, so that's what we see.
$LRCX Lam research is down 80 points. Every time it hits a high, it goes down 80. Isn't that crazy? Micron earnings. Can $MU rip this thing to 1070? Very possible.
Okay, $CRWD 388, 391.
$PANW 321, 326. Under 291, bad.
$LLY 901, 909.
$AMD 166, 168.
$GME, if you want to make a penny or two pennies or lose a penny or two pennies, then it's a good stock for you.
$GS Goldmann Sachs interesting, interesting. Huge premium, way overpriced. $GS five points out of the money on a Tuesday 1.5. He's charging 2.5. Eight points out of the money because it moved a lot. Don't get sucked in, and we'll discuss why on the streaming event. Okay, kind of a sucker trade, but it looks like it wants to go up.
$CVNA Carvana if it can get through 122, it can get to 131.
$AAPL relatively strong yesterday, 211, 216.
$FSLR 268, failed yesterday. Has to get through 268.
$ENPH 109.
$META, it's not going anywhere, guys. All you $META fans keep telling me, sending me stuff, $META's ready, $META's ready, $META—it's not ready. $AAPL hasn't signed a deal. They're looking to sign a deal. The same news came out four weeks ago. It didn't go. Okay, and I keep telling you, $META the last time they guided down, they guided down a second time. Okay, now nobody's saying they're going to guide down a second time, but because of that, you have to be cautious. '300.00'. Wait, chill, relax.
$ARM 159.
$MSTR Bitcoin up a little bit. See if it can get going. Needs 1740. That Beast number is out there. It's been out there for five weeks, six weeks. Wait, wait, wait.
$COIN 222, 229.
$SMCI 882, big number 882. Why? Because that's where it was pre-market yesterday until it collapsed. Very important number.
$NOW holding strong while all the other software stuff is not that good. So very interesting. So keep an eye on that.
$TSLA 188. It dropped yesterday. Look, they're not gonna buy $TSLA guys till they know something's changed. Okay, it hasn't changed. Everybody's like, "Oh my God, $TSLA's up. It's going to go, it's going to go." It doesn't go on a Monday. It goes up five, it goes down, and the options expire. Don't do that. Chill, relax.
That's where we know. Everybody have a great trading day. See you in chat.
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