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Okay, good morning good morning morning
stocks go up stocks go down
then we see then we see then we see… 07/18
interesting day yesterday we bought puts did great on puts $AMD two three batches did really good 160s 15 15 750s even the 150s we didn’t sell those holding those uh but they did good I mean 12 cents to 65 cents is good guys okay uh here’s the thing and I’m I’m going to keep pounding this into your heads you have to take profits you have to roll them on any particular day everything can go to [ __ ] like it started yesterday all the calls and we didn’t have a lot of them but you know $AMD calls went way down $NVDA calls went way down but we bought $AMD puts and made all our money back on the downside okay you know $NVDA was up a dollar to $2 it’s still there it’s okay maybe does it go maybe not who knows but we told you $LRCX is going to collapse with the $ASML news today you have $TSM news it’s it’s okay at best it’s not great why is it not great because the stock loses $16 on $ASML news and goes up $4 on its own news what what is that if it loses 16 on $ASML and you have good earnings shouldn’t it get at least a 16 back very straightforward okay so just understand uh we also found out why $SMCI is going down every day okay so there’s a rumor that this chip has problems if the chip in if the $NVDA chip has problems and you can’t deliver the rack that means you don’t get paid that means your revenue is lower okay now does that change is that only for next quarter when black will start shipping is it happening today I don’t know I don’t know okay but that’s an issue now if $NVDA were to say we have yield problems or this heating thing we haven’t figured it out they’re saying it should be done figured out by the end of the month if it’s not figured out does $NVDA drop 30 in one day it can okay maybe if they figure it out it goes way up so it just doesn’t matter you just have to understand this when you understand this then you trade well but when because if you’re sitting in calls we’re sitting in some calls micro strategy $NVDA $AMD uh $CVNA we had some calls and Sam immediately buys puts and I get a message said Sam I got calls why would I buy puts wow that means you didn’t expect zero that means you’re going to lose money all day long yesterday on you didn’t buy $AMD puts because you don’t want the puts because you have calls you didn’t buy $NVDA puts because you have calls you didn’t buy $SPX puts because you have calls you didn’t buy $MSTR puts we we have $MSTR calls and we had what maybe 60 70 grand in them on the call side and we bought puts and and we took them 5 to 12 and made the 70 grand that’s trading if and you can only do this if you expect zero if you don’t expect to hold on SEC you guys can’t hear me right uh yes okay uh so if you don’t do if I’m telling you people have a mental issue if they have $NVDA stock say you have $NVDA stock uh and I’m telling you people do dumb stuff let’s say you bought $NVDA at at a 100 okay just making it up and it’s trading at 120 and $NVDA comes out and says we have a problem this I’m just making stuff up and the stock is down 20 and you’re at 100 why wouldn’t you sell it right away you’re like oh oh it go back up why wouldn’t you sell it right away it’s negative it’s going to take time for it to go up then you buy back okay so that’s how you trade that’s called trading and you can become good if you pay attention you but you will never be good if by telling me stuff like I have $AMD calls I I can’t buy puts that means you never expected zero that means you fail and that means you deserve to fail and when you fail enough you fail two times three times four times you you you you fail 20 times at some point you you say I can’t do this anymore because I’m an idiot you do when you realize you’re an idiot then you change what you do Sam tells you every single day every single day in the last 10 years I say expect zero every single day and every single day I get somebody send me a message that doesn’t expect zero okay so don’t do that now today everything’s moving up maybe it’s better maybe chips are better but let me tell you if the chips go negative if $NVDA goes negative here early then the whole thing is going to create a way down okay and and there’s another number here now this $SPX 5500 if 5500 breaks I’m pretty sure the whole Market crumbles okay it has to hold okay it has to hold now it’s got a lot of points got 88 points down and almost 100 points but it just has to hold okay because at some point everybody’s going to say I’m taking my profits think about what happened yesterday $ASML missed how can $ASML miss explain this to me the second time in a row they missed well people saying you they didn’t miss him well if your expectations are n and 10 billion in orders and you get six that means your stock is overvalued just do the math do guys learn quick math you take how much they make so let’s say they make 450 so you times it by four but let’s make your math easier so round the 450 up to five that’s $5 times it by four quarters so that’s $20 $20 times an average PE of 30 that’s $600 $ASML should be $600 it’s trading it it was trading at ,50 so it goes down 100 points now they’re still giving it the benefit of the doubt they’re going to have all this growth because if they weren’t the stock would be at 700 okay but that’s that’s the simple math that’s simple math okay do simple math and you see where stock should be versus where it is and if it’s way way way overpriced it’s not going to go up when that happens okay uh okay so that’s what we know that’s what we need uh $SPX $SPF goes down 70 80 it’s up 10 not super strong I I don’t understand what we the $NDX was down 600 points 600 points it’s it’s not even up 100 okay so it’s not super strong let’s see maybe it gets there maybe it doesn’t I got a feeling let me tell you when the market does dumb stuff dumb people get whapped and they get destroy the RO and IW everybody says oh my God you’re gonna get this rally okay so you got a little bit can you hear me hold on a sec can you he yeah okay okay uh okay volume went back out sorry about that so the when you get this rally and stuff and into dumb stuff people nobody’s buying $RUT stocks they’re not gonna just because they’re going to cut rates later doesn’t mean they’re cutting rates now hold on SEC uh yeah okay so so that’s what we know okay that’s what we know that’s what we know that’s what we know so just understand this uh okay let’s get started okay good morning good morning everybody uh 718 718 uh stocks go up stocks go down see where everything happens early $SPX is up 10 okay you got uh 5600 569 5632 under 5581 would be bad $AVGO 16 61 can’t seem to get to 177 so just wait chill 151 down uh $NVDA 126 big number big number 118 down big number $UPSD 3136 $ASML uh 972 is where it opened so that’s where it can go to the upside it’s a four to six we avoid now uh downside 9911 $LRCX 1,6 under 930 1 $AMD 163 169 uh underneath 158 if $AMD has a problem people are saying people are returning their chips if that news comes out and they were to miss this is thing is sub 120 so fast $GS 506 up 190 or 499 down $CVNA needs 141 $COIN 256 $MSTR 1740 Trump talks Bitcoin next week uh the NASDAQ uh two 20,000 20,200 up 20,600 down $SMCI uh 852 but it needs a 50-point day if it can’t get a 50-point day it’s not worth playing either way $TSLA uh 256 up uh earnings next week $MSFT 440 held no don’t like it at all that’s what we know that’s what we know.
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