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Good morning, good morning. 07/09
Stocks go up, stocks go down—how about that start to the week? Every single week right now, good, good, good, good, good.
Yesterday, some people in the room were starting to say, "Oh, things are going down a little bit," and Sam said, "There's no money in puts right now." Maybe we collapse at some point and maybe you make a big, big killing in puts, but here's the thing: it's a hard trade. The things Sam does and the things Sam teaches are to do the easy trade. When Tesla ($TSLA) premium went crazy last week, the easy trade was buying the upside. The hard trade, and the dumb trade, was thinking, "Oh, it moved 20 points, I'm shorting." That's stupid. Don't do that. Do the simple trade, okay? The simple trade.
Now, Goldman Sachs ($GS) popped yesterday. We sold it. Why? Because it's the first test of the high of the year, and the first test usually fails. So, you take some profit and you roll up. That's what you do. Then we see, then we see, then we see. Very straightforward.
Today, Nvidia ($NVDA) got a $180 target. If it gets going, anything over 132 can rip this sucker. But you also have SMCI ($SMCI) presenting, and I think people want them to guide somehow. If they do 932, then we see what happens.
Tesla, very straightforward. Anything over 262 rips, okay? If it continues to go down, let it tank. Very straightforward. Don't force trades.
Avago ($AVGO) is trying to break up. If it can get through the 1772, it can probably spike. Chips are in play. Lam Research ($LRCX) is acting strong, very, very strong, and so is ASML ($ASML). Very straightforward. Taiwan Semi ($TSM) earnings are coming next week, I believe. So, that's what we have. Bitcoin's up a little bit. That's what we know, that's what we know, that's what we know.
AMD ($AMD) was up all the way to 180, down a little bit here. See if it reverses fast. Trading 101: everything was up. Now, things that concern me about people, and I'm telling you, if this is you, you're gonna fail. Look, I don't pat people on the back for lying to themselves or for failing. I just say, "You failed, you screwed up," and that's it.
Message yesterday: we hit Goldman Sachs, we sold it. We had AMD up a dollar. We had SMCI up $10. We had the other SMCI up $5. We had Tesla up $2. We had Nvidia a double. We had Avago up $10. Everything is up except for one thing: INID or Meta ($META). We bought those at $5, they went to $5.50, but then they went to $4, and somebody says, "It's down 25%." I'm like, "Who cares?" I'm just telling you, I'm not picking on you guys. I'm just telling you, if you're buying something at $5 and think you're going to sell it at $4, you have an awakening coming. You will lose money, you will go broke, you will get destroyed, and you should get destroyed because you're not listening. Buy less, expect zero. Look at Meta, it's up today. If Meta pops four, those things are going to go to $7. If it takes out 542, they're going to go to $15.
Last week, a guy bought Avago. I understand if you're buying a bigger position, don't buy it. Don't buy a $9 position if you don't want to lose $9. But $9 goes to $4, and then it goes to $72. If that's you, selling it from 9 to 7, you have zero chance of success. Actually, less than zero. That's like betting on the Dallas Cowboys to win a playoff game. Don't do it. Sam will do it, but don't do it. Interesting, interesting. So, that's what we know. That's what we know, that's what we know.
Then we see, then we see, then we see. Stocks go up, stocks go down. That's it. The market is a good market. When the market is good, it doesn't mean that everything hits. It means you take profits and you play that side. Maybe if we get news, if Powell comes out today and says he's going to raise rates, or even if he says there's a possibility that we have to raise rates, they're going to take the market down, and then they're going to take it up. Just understand that.
But there's no Mike Wilson [expletive] of "we're going to drop 10%." We can't even drop 30 points. How are you going to drop 10% if you can't drop 30 points? What a complete [expletive] he is. Let me tell you, the problem with these brokers and these analysts is there's no ramifications for being stupid. They have no ramifications. The guy's wrong for 18 months, and now he's back again to be wrong another 18 months. Let me tell you, if Powell comes out and says, if CPI is low, I mean, think about it—he's not going to say this—but if he says, "If CPI comes in at 0.1, we're gonna cut," that means the market goes up 300 or 400 SPX, and this guy is wrong again. I mean, you just can't make this [expletive] up.
Then we see, then we see. ARM ($ARM) looks like it wants to break up. Carvana ($CVNA)—so this dealer system that's still down, once that comes back up, we're going to look at Carvana. Not up yet. Then we see, then we see, then we see.
Don't force trades. People are like, "Oh, CrowdStrike ($CRWD) is ready." How is CrowdStrike ready, really? Watch it go, but how is it ready? It got to 396. When is it going to be added to the SPX? It hasn't broken 396, so how is it ready? Doesn't it need to get near 396 to be ready? Just because you're looking at some chart that tells you something, the premium doesn't tell you anything. The premium tells you it's not ready. So, that's how to trade. The premium—I'm telling you, watch the Vegas video and it will be an eye-opener. It fascinates me, the laziness of people. "Oh, it's five hours, Sam." Do you want to get good, or do you want to suck your whole life? If you want to get good, watch the video. It's that good. And you will learn. You will learn and you will see how Sam, like yesterday, picked six things that rocketed. Not one, six. Then we see, then we see, then we see.
Interesting, interesting, interesting. So, that's what we know. That's what we know, that's what we know. Let's get started. Good morning, good morning, everybody. SPX up a little bit. It's starting to go. Let's see if it can hold. You've got 5582, 5600, 5609, 5622. Underneath 5551. Powell talking today. He's not going to say [expletive]. They're gonna crucify him. The guy's going to get fired if he screws this up. He's going to get fired, and they're going to destroy him. His legacy is at risk here. You don't do that. You don't do what he's saying. "Oh, we need confirmation." Let me tell you, that's like your parents telling you, "Oh, Dad, can you buy me a car?" "Yeah, I need confirmation I'm going to have a job for the next 25 years." Nobody's going to give you confirmation for 20 years or 10 reports. Doesn't happen that way.
But the bigger thing that Powell needs to be aware of: the world is different. It's not the same. Every one of these professors at every university is wrong. Every one. Not one is right. Every single book should be burned because it's wrong. Every single book is wrong. A guy came on yesterday and he goes, "The yield curve is still inverted. It's been inverted for 18 months." What if it stays inverted for 20 years? They're going to say, "Oh, if the yield curve is inverted, you get a recession." What the hell is that? If it doesn't work for 18 months, how is it real? You can never use that indicator again, ever. Ever.
Avago: 1772, 1800, 1831. Underneath 1650, way down there, 1650. Nvidia: huge upgrade. If it gets over 132 and closes, they can spike it. Has to get over and close there. Underneath 126. ASML: 1100, 1122. Very hard trade because the premiums are stupid. For earnings, they're $20. It has to go up $40 just to break even. Very hard, high price. CrowdStrike: 396. Palo Alto Networks ($PANW): 345. Meta: 536, 542. Booking Holdings ($BKNG): 400, long way. Google ($GOOGL): 191. Apple ($AAPL): 228, 231. AMD got all the way to 180 pre-market and it's down a little bit. See if it takes out 181. Goldman Sachs is going to try again right at the open.
JP Morgan ($JPM) is going to have earnings. That's trading at 12 times earnings. Last time they had earnings, it went down a lot. If JP Morgan pops, then they're going to just rocket. General Motors ($GM) on Friday. Carvana: 126. ARM: 188. Coinbase ($COIN): 266, beast. MicroStrategy ($MSTR): 1740, beast. SMCI: 923, 932 is a big number, 972, and 1013. Tesla: if this can get through 260, 262 is going to be a little bit difficult. 266 is ridiculously difficult, but if that breaks, 292.
That's what we know. Very straightforward. Everybody have a great trading day. See you in chat.
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