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Okay, let's get started here. Can you hear me? Can you hear me? Can you hear me? Come on, somebody type in if you can hear me. Okay, good. Good, good, good.
Great day yesterday. Nice start to the week. We were about to break 5500, couldn't go up, couldn't go down, so we went up. We popped up, took two tests lower, and then popped back up again. Now it sits okay.
There are all these Biden rumors. Who knows what's going on there, but don't really care. The big thing about the Biden rumors is that if, for some reason, he were to pass and if it happens fast, they will close the market. If they close the market on a Friday, or maybe a Thursday and a Friday, or maybe three days because it's a standing president, they can do that. All your options go to zero, and if they go to zero, you're screwed. Too bad, it is what it is. All you have to do is look at characteristics RIS of standardized options, which tells you right there that if the market is closed, all your options expire. It's really, really that simple.
So, that's what we know. How about Tesla? The logic on some of this stuff is not hard, but people really don't get it. You just have to get better at logic. If you get better at logic, you get better at trading. If you get better at trading, you do better, take less risks, and don't do dumb stuff. If you continue to do dumb stuff, you just fail.
Tesla was simple because they're going to buy Tesla if, for some reason, Elon says something about robots or AI or if their solar business did better, and their earnings do better. They're going to rip this sucker to 291 really fast. So, we did what we always do. We bought the 270s right away at 340, and they're going to open at 640, so they're going to be up three bucks. We already took two bucks and added the 300s for next week. We're going to let those play out. We're going to sell the original ones, let the second ones play out, and you have a buck profit after that no matter what happens. If everything goes to [ __ ], you're up a buck. If everything rips, you're going to be up 20 bucks. Trading 101, that's Sam, that's how you do it. Very straightforward, not hard.
SPX is doing nothing, but it's really simple here. If we take out 5500, we're probably going to go to 5350 very fast, lightning quick. But if we get over 5600 or even near 5600 and the PCE is good on Friday, we may go right back to high of year. Like I told you, there's no compelling reason for the market to go down. Doesn't mean anything, just means that the downs are limited, upside.
You need the semis to come back, and today's the first day that you're going to get news because you're going to get Google earnings. I don't really care about Google at all. We only care about the Google Cloud. If Google Cloud is good, that means Amazon Cloud is good, that means they're buying more chips, which means Nvidia is better, Lamb Research is better, and all the semis are better.
How about Lamb Research? We bought those at 470, sold them at 150. Grand slam, right off the bat. Bought a lot of them too, 100, very nice. That was pretty simple. Lamb Research went from 1130 to 930, dropped 200 points. How did you not know it was going to go as soon as it went? Very straightforward, because ASML went up. ASML missed earnings, started the down wave in the chip equipment companies. When it was up 30, you knew Lamb Research would go with it. Not rocket science, very straightforward.
CrowdStrike, these guys are clowns. CrowdStrike is Boeing. I understand it's different than Boeing, but it's Boeing. They took down the world. Whoever coded that didn't test it. Maybe they hired someone out of school or had a clown doing it. The manager didn't pound on the guy. When I was doing it, these guys would come to me and say they tested it, and I'd tell them to keep testing. If they didn't want to, I'd tell them to go home, put them on leave. You have to test, and they didn't test. When you don't test, you're completely liable.
Airlines, 4000 flights at Delta. Insanity. I don't really blame the CEO except for hiring some goofball, but the CEO should know not to roll out everything at once. Roll out to one state or one region at a time. None of this is rocket science. CrowdStrike is going to miss on earnings, guide lower, take provisions for lawsuits, and guide lower again. Over time, it goes lower and lower.
Google earnings today, how far does it go? Google is interesting because by the numbers, it's supposed to make $1.90, let's say $2. Times that by 4, that's $8. Times it by a 30 PE, that's 240. So, the stock should be around 240. But they have ChatGPT and other factors. Big thing in Google is all the chip equipment and chip things if it rips.
Bitcoin, MicroStrategy, Trump is presenting Thursday. If he presents Thursday, does Bitcoin go? Coin keeps getting to 266. If it pops through 266, probably gets to 271 and 282. MicroStrategy, same thing, very close to a breakout. SMCI, if they don't guide up, it means they have a liquid cooling problem, will head lower if they don't guide up. Very straightforward.
That's what we have. Outside of that, not too much happening, but very nice start to the week. Doing well. SPX up and down. Let's get going here. Good morning, everybody. 7:23.
SPX, very straightforward here. 5571, 5591. Anything over 5600 is 5609. PCE will move it. Underneath, 5521, 5503, 5491. If 5491 breaks, it's a cliff.
Avago doing nothing, 161, 177. Underneath, 157. Nvidia, acting a little bit better, 126, 131. Underneath, 119. Still nothing about the issue they have with liquid cooling. Do they guide down or up? Don't know. Just understand that it's there.
CrowdStrike, 261, 252. PANW not getting a lot of action, 341. ASML can still get to 972, but after that, four to six weeks of void. Lamb Research, 972, 1000, 1090. Can go all the way to 1032 if Google Cloud is good. Interesting.
Google, 188, 191. Goldman Sachs needs 491 and 500. AMD, under 141 is a cliff, under 149 is a cliff and it will die hard and fast. Carvana, 131, 136. ARM, no man's land. When ARM gets like this, it just sits and does nothing, so don't overpay.
Coin, 266. MicroStrategy, right there, needs Bitcoin to break through. NASDAQ, if we break 5500 on the down, can go all the way to 19300. If we break through 5600, can easily be 20500 on Friday at close. Tesla, 256, 261, 269. Earnings, let's see what happens. SERV, a little better, just sitting there. Took profits, interesting play. Microsoft, no man's land.
That's what we know.
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