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Okay, good morning good morning morning.
Stocks go up, stocks go down. 07/22
Then we see, uh just make sure you can hear me here and we'll get started. Crazy crazy crazy weekend. Uh man, this coin looks like it wants to go to 300. Insane. MicroStrategy looks like it wants to go to 2,200. Bitcoin looks like it wants to go to 880,000. Okay, and then we got issues guys. I posted this yesterday and I really don't care what you think. Everybody's got an opinion and it's okay, but Sam's opinions are not about opinions. They're about what's possible and based on what's possible is how you have to trade, okay?
And we talk a little bit about average moves, average weekly moves, all that type of stuff is in the video you guys learned a ton. But here's something else. Now there's a rumor that Biden is going to ban all H200 chip sales to China. Now H200 is already banned but what they've done is they’ve come up with a new chip that doesn't have the certain set of technology that Biden is saying he's going to ban too. If he bans this, that's 12 billion in revenue and Nvidia is down 30 to 40 points in one day, okay? I don't care what you think, okay? That's just fact.
Now, if he doesn't ban it, everything's hunky dory and it's good, right? Pretty straightforward. So I'm not saying that they're going to ban it, I'm not saying that they're not going to ban it. I'm just saying you have to be aware. So if you're aware, then it's okay. If you're not aware and you're ignorant of things that are possible and say, "That's not going to happen, I'm just going to buy $10 million worth," and then your account goes to [ __ ], you just have to be aware, okay? So I don't know what's going to happen but here's my thoughts. My thoughts are how can you ban something that's not illegal? I mean, is that what we're getting to? Is that a dictatorship? If you tell me I can't sell this for a specific reason because I can't sell this technology or I can't do this telling people you can't sell an H200, well, tell me the technology you can't sell to them and then I'll go fix it. So I don't know what's real but here's what I know is now that he's not in the race he can do whatever the hell he wants to do and you can't do a [ __ ] about it, okay? So just understand that. Just understand that, okay?
And that's how you become a great trader. That's how you become like Sam. You know, like yesterday, I mean, not yesterday, Wednesday and Thursday people are sending me messages, "Sam we have AMD calls," I said, "So we have AMD puts," and they're like, "Sam my AMD calls didn't work," and Sam's like, "Oh but the AMD puts went one to nine." You know why? Because the people that don't believe and expect zero, they lie to themselves and then when you see a reversal like you’ve seen last week you get smoked, except if you're Sam. You don't get smoked because you make money non-stop on puts, non-stop on AMD, non-stop on MicroStrategy, non-stop on coin, everything's a winner except SMCI that went to [ __ ] but that doesn't matter. Very straightforward, very straightforward, okay? So I keep telling you to become great you have to expect zero. Now I understand there's a bunch of idiots in the world on Twitter, "Oh Sam wants me to take everything." If you want to put a do 10 options at one, I mean let somebody needs to explain this to me. If you want to do 10 options at one that's $1,000 and Sam says, "Oh but what stop do you want?" "Oh I want a 50% stop Sam, I only want to lose 500," so just put in 500. Well, what's the difference? How do you not understand this basic concept?
Okay, so now today is very straightforward because if we break 5500 we are going to go to 5,300 so fast it's going to make your head spin. We are going to completely implode. Now, I didn't say we're going to go we're going to break and implode. I said if we break 5500. So what you want to see, SPX is up 34, okay? If we are up 15 now guys, when I tell you some things I really really struggle how how you guys don't understand this, okay? I said if you’re up 15. Right now you're up 34. If you're up 15, I'm not saying down 15 from where we are, I'm saying if the SPX is up 15. Guys when I gave you the algorithm stuff plus or minus six literally a 100 questions on "Sam is it down six from where it is?" Every time it goes down six, "Sam is it up six?" It's when the day starts if it's up or down six. So right now SPX is up 35. If it goes to - six, and Alo will kick in, that's it. Everything Sam does is super super simple, okay?
Now one other thing to know here, was last week entirely about expiration week? If that is true and they took everything down into expiration week and Vick expiration then we're going to go hit 5650. That's 150 handles up in the next two days if that's what happened. Now, very straightforward. We're doing fine. We're just loaded in coin and we're loaded in Carvana. That's it, you know? And then we got the serve stock that's gone nuts, okay? We got some SMCI, we'll see but we're probably going to add MicroStrategy at early. Now somebody's going to send me a message, "I'm going to add MicroStrategy," and it never fails. I mean in the last three weeks every single time after I buy MicroStrategy somebody sends me a message and says, "Sam I can't afford MicroStrategy should I still buy one?" And I say what you do is up to you. Guys when I started trading and I would borrow $5,000 I didn't have money to buy a certain set of things. When you are trading you may not have a opportunity buy a certain set of things you can't afford it and in five years you may have that money and in 10 years you may have that money. I don't understand why somebody thinks that you can come in to anything and somebody says, "Oh go buy SMCI," and people are like, "Well I want to buy stock but I can't afford it, I can buy two shares," what why would anybody buy two shares? Jim Kramer's method, I mean and I like Jim Kramer he's an absolute [ __ ] at this stuff. Buying oh you should buy two shares. What what is two shares going to do for you? If it goes up five points you make 10 bucks. That going to do anything for you? Doesn’t do [ __ ] on an $800 investment, you're going to make 10 bucks. Guys one other thing here very interesting and I was talking to somebody at dinner yesterday. Very very interesting.
So the reason Bitcoin goes up and all the cryptos go up it's not because people think crypto is good. Nobody thinks doggy is good. Everybody thinks doggy is a piece of [ __ ], okay? Everybody, even Elon, okay? But here's why these go up, because there's a whole set of people in the world that trade stocks, options that want to make money and they don't want to make 10 bucks. They want to put in a $100 into something that's 0.001 penny. They want to buy a stock that's 20 cents and take it to five bucks. They're not looking to make, "Oh I'm going to go buy this stock at 150 and take it to 155. Oh my God, my week is good. Oh my God, I'm going to go take out my girlfriend. We're going to go for, oh we're upgrading to Burger King for McDonald's." Really, nobody is doing that. The people don't understand and the whole problem with Wall Street and all Harvard yeah all these guys they don't understand. People want to make money at an earlier age. They want to have fun. They want to go on vacations so they're going to go put their money into risky stuff. Now is that a good bet or a bad bet? I don't know. We never tell you that. What you do is up to you but what I'm telling you that's why crypto goes up. That's why crypto goes up. You can buy Bitcoin and make 300 or 400 or $500 in a week on Bitcoin whereas if you put that same money into something else, "Oh go buy Pfizer." I mean look at these clowns on CNBC talking about Pfizer. Pfizer hasn't moved in 20 years, 20 years. Jesus, Intel hasn't moved in 20 years. GM hasn't moved since forever. Why would you buy stuff like that? That's why it goes, okay? So interesting, interesting.
So today very straightforward. If SPX looks like it's going to go negative, it gets down to, it's up 36 now, if it gets to, if if you look at SPX and the SPX is up 15 you can probably tell yourself we're going to test negative, okay? And if it's not it can rip rip rip rip way up then we see, then we see. Now just understand at any particular moment of any particular day in the next two to three weeks Biden can come out and say, "I'm banning Nvidia H20s." If he does, Nvidia is sub 100. Now I'm not telling you it's going to happen. My opinion is it probably doesn't happen but my opinion is it has a possibility 10 or 20%. There's a possibility. So if there's a possibility you have to
be aware, okay? Let's get going. SPX up 37, runner runner. That puts it at near next number is 5552, 5571. Under 5500 bad, okay? Avago 163, 177 way up there. That's 1770 our old number. Nvidia 123, 126. Anything over 131 rips. Underneath bad. UPSD 31. CrowdStrike is going to 281, then it's going to 230, then it may go to 150. They're going to get sued by everybody. They put out a release that a programmer in sixth grade wouldn't put out. If you have a son that's smart and he knows how to code already he knows you can't have a NOP pointer and you have to you have to test it. He just does, he just does and they put it out and not only did they do that they put it out all over the world instead of phasing it in. That's like going to a company like Amazon. What do you think Bezos would do to somebody? I would guarantee you Bezos would invite a guy that screwed up his his uh his his thing if he took all of Amazon down for three days he would invite him on his cruise ship and that's all you would ever hear of it, okay? I'm just telling you because you just don't do it. If you're going to roll out stuff on Amazon you roll out, "Oh let's go roll out in this area," or "Let's go roll out in this area." Well why do you do it all at one time? "Oh we're sure," and let me tell you I know coders, okay? And I know a lot of good coders but every coder is cockier than Sam and Sam's the cockiest guy in the world and they say, "Oh I changed the color red red to green. I don't need to check anything but the color of the font. The background color is green. If the color of the font is green you don't read anything." They didn't check that, that's what they do, people do this, programmers do this so just understand, okay? So that's CrowdStrike. No compelling reason to own this at all. PANW 341. ASML looks better today 932. It can get to 97. It's a 46 week of void but 46 week of void from the 970 level is where it was so I could probably get back there. L research 952. AMD under 149 is a cliff, a complete cliff. Over 161 is 168. Goldman Sachs 491 probably can get back all the way back to 500. Carvana 236, 251. ARM 168, 172. Coin 266 Beast, then 282. MicroStrategy this one may pop to 18850 in the first 10 minutes. If I can buy these 1900s back at 30 bucks we're probably going to do that. If I can buy the 2000s back at probably 20 we're probably going to do that, then we see. SMCI has a problem. What we what we're seeing is everything I read is because it's the Nvidia heating issue on the H20s. The liquid cooling stuff has an issue. If liquid cooling has an issue they're going to miss, they're going to miss. Nothing else to say. Tesla earnings. Elon's going to put out a robot next year. Interesting, interesting. If they buy the robot thesis 271, 282. SCV 1290. Microsoft earnings next week. 449 becomes a number. NOW moving back up into earnings. If it's bad and the NASDAQ starts the crater this goes right back down. The NASDAQ keep an eye on it. This was at 20,500 it's down 1,000 points. It could easily go 300 today if we hold. If we don't hold and we drop 10 fast somewhere we'll probably buy a hedge but what a great great run we've had. Unbelievable, making so much money you don't know what to do with it, and then we see...
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