Weekly Plan 03.04.24
Good Morning Traders-
Stocks go up, stocks go down - fantastic Friday, amazing Monday.
SMCI 0.00%↑ is up 150. We don't have a lot, but we have a lot. We have five, not bad. I mean, going to do okay. At the money should be about $70. You would think so, somewhere in there. It hit $1095 last night, so it should hit there. Over 1070 is a squeeze.
Then we see NVDA 0.00%↑ going absolutely crazy, up 21. So DELL 0.00%↑ let something slip on Nvidia. So there was something slipped about Nvidia chips. Every two years, now they're saying Nvidia has a roadmap every year. Okay, very interesting.
So then we see Dell came out Friday and said the same thing about Nvidia that SMCI said. You know, 3X growth on the AI product in the next 18 months. That's massive. That's massive, massive, massive, okay, very, very interesting.
So then we see, then we see, then we see.
COIN 0.00%↑ at the money is 11. Okay, guys, it's 11. People are asking for Coinbase option fair value prices. So COIN at the money is 11, so out of the money, 10. Out of the money is going to be seven, seven and a half.
So interesting, interesting.
AMD 0.00%↑ had a huge move Friday. Friday, then we see, then we see, then we see,
NOW 0.00%↑ is the one that still can't go. So just avoid it, okay? Just avoid it.
MSFT 0.00%↑ can't seem to get going. Kind of just avoid it.
Play the ones that are working.
How far does Bitcoin go? Does it hit 69,000 and just break through? What is the Bitcoin news? Does somebody know? Oh, yeah. Well, we hit all-time high, that's not news, that's just happening. Thank you. It's going to 69,000. We know that. I actually think it's going to go to 76K, and it may even go to 100K because if these funds are holding it and they're buying it and they're holding it, they're not going to sell it. Even if people sell, that means there's less Bitcoin. When you have less Bitcoin, it's going to go up more, okay?
It isn't like John is buying from Jack. John is buying more, okay?
It passed the all-time high in Europe, so it's through 69? I didn't know it was that high. I thought about 67. Look at this, Banana takes 10 minutes to do something because he's just kind of screwing around, and it just continues to go.
Bitcoin price is - I see it at 65, guys. I don't see it at 69. Okay.
So that's what we know. That's what we know. That's what we know.
SMCI, so if you go through the SuperMicro posts, the logic was simple, and I know people were talking about other people being added, but these guys don't think like Banana, okay?
So what is the hottest stock in the market right now, guys? What's the hottest stock? The one everybody is talking about?
It's SMCI. It's not PLTR 0.00%↑ , it's not these other low-priced stocks. That's not it. But all the people that go analyze stuff, they're using historical data and teachings from books that they should burn. And I'm serious, you should burn every book. There's nothing like this. You've never seen what's happening. Happening. You've not seen this.
Let me tell you, ASML 0.00%↑ hasn't even started yet. This is going to get to 1300, 1400. LRCX 0.00%↑ , 1300, 1400, okay? Even CVNA 0.00%↑ made a dollar. You times a dollar by four, it's $4. It's trading at 25 times earnings. Jesus, if they squeeze it, it's probably 120.
LLY 0.00%↑ is going up. I don't know the news today on Lilly. Okay, and then we see, but SMCI, if you think about it, but why would they not include the hottest stock in the market? Okay?
Because then you look and say, what other high-priced stocks are in there? Well, you got AVGO 0.00%↑ , which is up another 21. You got that's 1,400. You got Nvidia, which is trading at 800. That's in the S&P. You got ASML and Lam Research. They're both 900. They're in the S&P. So, you know, I was saying, well, they probably need to split it, but not necessarily. Okay, they don't necessarily need to split, okay? Because there's a lot of high-priced stuff.
PANW 0.00%↑ didn't break, but CRWD 0.00%↑ gonna guide down too. Look, CrowdStrike is stupidly priced. Okay, I mean, I'm telling you it's stupidly priced. They're not even going to make $3 this year, and it's trading at 300, 100 times earnings. Palo Alto and ZS 0.00%↑ . But doesn't mean you go short.
Look, people lose money because they look at charts and they say - Oh my God, this is up too much. Who gives a shit - I just care about what's going to happen the next day. I don't care about if it's up too much. Does it go up tomorrow? Or I'm happy. See, this is sad.
META 0.00%↑ trying to break up. META, I said 500 last week on Monday. I said it's gonna go to 500, and people are like, "you don't know what you're doing." Really? Where did it close? 500… went through that.
Okay, very simple.
Uh, what is the OZEMPIC news, guys? Somebody saying Lily is up because of Ozempic news. I don't know what that news is. Okay, so interesting, interesting.
MDB 0.00%↑ hasn't moved. Now, SNOW 0.00%↑ failed. Does MDB fail? If MDB doesn't fail…, MDB is stupidly priced too. The 470s for this week for earnings are $20. They're $20, I mean insane premiums.
MSTR 0.00%↑ up 100. It's up 100! Do they take Bitcoin right to $70,000 today? That means they probably be 1300.
If SMCI takes out 1100, probably 1161.
Jesus, when things are moving, play the movers. Play the movers. You don't have to buy a lot, play the movers. But shorting it and saying, you know, "Oh, I'm shorting this," you know, you deserve to get massacred 'cause it's not a short. There's nothing in the market that's a short right now. You may buy some shorts, but they're not shorts because if they take this up to 5300-5400, and I think it's coming, maybe 5500, he hasn't even started rate cuts.
What if he comes out in March and said rate cut next month, or April or June? The S&P is at 5600.
Don't be delusional because you're reading books that are old, people telling you for the last - I mean, this guy Puru or whatever his name is, is telling you he's posted over 200 times that a recession is coming. Go look, 200 times in the last 6 months, he's telling you there's a recession coming. He's been wrong 200 times. This is Mike Wilson.
Okay, AMD, I mean, and then let me go bust some bubbles here, guys, okay? Just want to bust some bubbles because nobody else busts your bubble like Banana. Okay, Banana can bust your bubble, okay? Very, very simple. Uh, people are telling me, "Oh, GOOGL 0.00%↑ is building their own AI chip." Google couldn't build shit - AMZN 0.00%↑ building their AI chip. Amazon's chip sucks. AMD is building a chip. AMD's chip sucks. Now, doesn't mean the stock doesn't go up because all these people think it's good.
Way back when, I was telling people this over the weekend, if you couldn't buy a Dell way back when, and you couldn't buy Compaq, remember Compaq? You couldn't buy Compaq. You couldn't buy Dell, and you couldn't even buy a Gateway. You went and bought an Acer, you bought a computer, an Acer. "Oh, you can't get an Nvidia chip. I'm gonna get an AMD chip." Oh, you can't get a chip. Microsoft's gonna build a chip.
Why do you think, guys? Come on, guys, explain this to me. Why do you think you can just, "Oh, I'm gonna go build an AI chip"? Why? Why doesn't somebody come out there and say, "I'm gonna build an AI chip, and it's gonna be done in a week."
It's gonna take years and years and years.
The AMD chip is effectively shit, I'm just telling you now, doesn't mean AMD doesn't go to 230-240, because all they have to say is our chips are sold out and it's way up. Doesn't mean it's any good.
Okay, let me tell you. Elon has been telling us he's building AI chips for five years. For five years, he's told us he's building AI chips, and he can't sell a single chip to anybody. Oh, because it kind of sucks, kind of doesn't work, it's too slow, the power requirements are too high, and it burns too hot. You don't just make things. Let me tell you the simplest thing, and remember this, we're gonna end with this, okay? And then we'll start going.
NFLX 0.00%↑ . I remember DIS 0.00%↑ and everybody else, Hulu and everybody coming out, "Oh, I'm just gonna run a streaming service. This is easy. I can just build. There's no barriers to entry." They teach you this crap in school. That's why you burn the school. You don't go to the school. You don't listen to Professor. Go sit down with him, say, "Hey, guy, do you want to talk to Banana? He'll tell you what real reality is. Go tell him that. I'll talk to him." Because the reality is the barrier to entry. It's not what you think. Disney thought barrier to entry. "I'm gonna start a Disney service." And it took them three years to make it. So they lose two, four, six billion. Six billion from Netflix, then they do it, and nobody wants it. They lose another - they spend 10 billion doing it. 10 to 12 billion. So 12 billion plus the six from Netflix, that's 18 billion. And still, it's not profitable. So they're losing 22B. So they're down $25 billion.
Oh, but there's no barriers to entry. Are people disillusioned? They're completely disillusioned. It's very, very hard to compete in anything.
People keep telling me, "Oh my God, somebody's gonna create a phone. Oh, Elon's gonna create a phone." Do you think anybody in the world would buy an Elon phone? Not one person would buy an Elon phone. Understand this, guys. Nvidia is so far advanced, AMD, you can't even sniff them. How shit that chip is… now doesn't mean people don't buy it because they need something.
Okay, just understand that. And if you understand that, you will become a better trader.
Okay, now, once again, I didn't say AMD goes down.
You gotta understand how analysis is. Okay, very, very straightforward.
That's what we know. Let's get started.
Good morning, everybody. 3/4
SPX down 5-6. You got 5131, 5100, 5152, 5172.
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