Weekly Plan 02.12.24
Good morning, good morning!
What a week last week. Unbelievable, it just continues.
Stocks go up, stocks go down.
Does that happen again? Don't know.
Does everything go to... don't know.
Everything looks okay.
SMCI 0.00%↑ moving again. It's up 18. I mean, I have the 860s on my screen. They were $5. That's 110 points away. We used to pay… 30 points away, a dollar, 40 points away, 50 cents. Now 110 points away, $5. Okay.
NOW 0.00%↑ looks like it's trying to break up. If it can get through this 822, it can go a long way. So, it looks nice.
You got DDOG 0.00%↑ earnings coming tomorrow. I believe ANET 0.00%↑ earnings today. ANET will run. PANW 0.00%↑ , ZS 0.00%↑ . How about last week? Zscaler. We buy it and I get a couple of messages. Sam, my Zscaler is going down. I'm like, "Okay, did you expect zero?" That means you lied to yourself. And then it goes up. Then it comes down a little bit. And then it goes. And then it starts to go boom, boom, boom, boom, and goes to $7. This is trading, guys.
This is trading. If you truly believe, then expect zero. You can achieve greatness. If you whine and moan, you're gonna fail.
But here's the thing. The premiums are ludicrous on some of this stuff. NVIDIA's just going. Why is NVDA 0.00%↑ not 800? It's going to be 800. People don't understand. It's the future, guys. SMCI. I told you. Revenues triple. Triple. How are their revenues going to triple if they don't get it through NVIDIA? He's going to go talk with TSM 0.00%↑ . Now, it doesn't mean it's not in the stock. Maybe the stock doesn't go, but the revenues are going to go up. Why is he not going to guide up? Why would you? If you double your business and then you triple your business and it's working, why do you need even more capacity unless you're going to guide up? I mean, if none of this is rocket science.
So that takes the clouds up. AMZN 0.00%↑ doing great. MSFT 0.00%↑ doing great. GOOGL 0.00%↑ Cloud doing great. And now you have META 0.00%↑ Cloud. If, when they announce Facebook Cloud, you know, Facebook, we got out of our Facebook on Friday because it opened up at 473. We got out. We made our money on that one. The other one didn't work. But here's the thing. If you go back and look at history, the last time Facebook ripped, it ripped. I don't know what it... 248, 252, somewhere in there. It sat there for two weeks. So, does it sit there this week and then go next week? But next week becomes dividend. Does everybody buy it for the dividend? And then we see. Then we see.
But here's what I know about Meta. Is if and when it gets to 476 and closes, it's going to rip the high of the year and probably to 500. Does it happen this week? I don't know. If it doesn't, oh well. It doesn't. If it does, great. It does.
How about MSTR 0.00%↑ ? All day long on Friday. Bitcoin trying to go. If it gets over 50,000, does it get to 60,000? Can MicroStrategy get to 900? Very possible. But Bitcoin has to lead it.
CMG 0.00%↑ straight down after hitting 2720. So, CMG is now... I don't touch for a while. So, just wait.
ORCL 0.00%↑ is back on the thing because if MDB 0.00%↑ is going to go, then Oracle can go. He told us one to two quarters. It'll get better. This is one quarter. If it doesn't get better, it's another quarter. It'll be the next one.
ANET 0.00%↑ is coming. DDOG 0.00%↑ is coming. That takes SNOW 0.00%↑ higher. How about Snow? Two days in a row. Two Fridays in a row. But his premium is ludicrous. Think about it, guys. This is what I mean about premium. And I'm going to tell this to you. I shouldn't be telling you this stuff because it gives you... It just gives it to you. If Snowflake is at 219 and we buy the 230s, 230s at $1.50, that's 11 points out of the money. Last Friday, we bought them. Not last Friday. Friday before when we were in New York. We buy them at $1.50, 11 points out of the money. $1.50. And now this week, it closed at 223. So, let's say two... 233, 234. The 250s are $182. 16 points out of the money are more than 11 points out of the money. And no news coming on it. They'll get competitor news.
Interesting, right? This means something.
LLY 0.00%↑ continues to go. Very nice. 752.
How about Lam Research? How about LRCX 0.00%↑ ? The thing just explodes through. Explodes through. Yesterday, I was talking to Juan. We're watching the game. And I showed him a message. Samsung and Hynix have a memory that its growth is 5X. This memory that they're putting into the high-end boxes. And we're thinking it's AI boxes. We don't know who makes the equipment for that memory. But I'll try and post it. It says this memory is 5X and they can't keep it in stock. Is that the memory that's going into the SMCI 0.00%↑ box? Is it like a 256 gigabyte? I don't know what it is. Who knows? I don't know. But whoever makes that equipment, so ASML 0.00%↑ continues to go. Now it's down 15, but that's okay because this is what it did Friday. ASML was down 15 on Friday and it came positive. So you need ASML to make the new chips. Let me tell you, if you really believe in the new chips, which is, I'm talking about all the AI chips and all the advanced chips. And think about if Sam Altman gets $7 trillion to start new fabs, where is he going to deploy the most of the money? Yeah, you got to build the buildings and stuff, but then you got to build the clean rooms. But then you got to put all the machines in. And what are those machines? There'll be some Lam Research. There'll be some AMAT 0.00%↑ . There'll be some KLAC 0.00%↑ . But the bulk of them are ASML. Does ASML go to 1,500, 1,800 in a year? Maybe. Who knows? I don't know. But, this is just logistically looking at what drives what. And then we see. All of a sudden, AVGO 0.00%↑ positive. Everybody sells Broadcom because, "Oh my God, NVIDIA is going to go compete with them." It's three years out.
Look, people are just dumb. You know, I just hate dumb people. I can't deal with dumb people. People send me stuff. I mean, you know, just, you see, "Oh, DIS 0.00%↑going to compete with NFLX 0.00%↑ . Netflix going to die." I said, "Disney can't compete with Netflix. And it's going to take five years and it's going to take $15 billion." They're like, "No, no, no. It's easy to put up a streaming. Disney can't even put up a streaming sports stuff with two other places for another 18 months. That means 18 months you're not getting paid. 18 months, you're going to spend a billion, two billion, maybe five billion doing it. And then that's going to fail too.
Nobody, let me tell you, the market for sports is a dead market. It's a dead market. Okay? Don't believe. Everybody watches sports, but not all of them go. Go look at the thing. 90% of the homes that have ESPN and stuff don't even watch it. Only 10% watch it. So they're going to go pay $40, $50. And then they're going to raise it to 80. And somebody's going to say, "Oh, you get ESPN and all the sports for $80." Everybody's going to cancel it. Everybody's going to cancel it. They just are. They have no clue. It's not going to work. It's not going to work. Just like the Disney Plus didn't work.
Let me tell you, Nelson Peltz, you get me in a room with Nelson Peltz and we go get into a room with Iger. And I put him on stage and I say, "Look, instead of getting $2 billion from Disney every year for five years, you decided to do it yourself and you lost two to three billion a year. So instead of getting 10 billion, you lost 15 billion. You're down 25 billion. Oh, but now you got 100 million customers going to pay you five bucks. Oh, but we barely make any profit. Oh, but we will in 10 years." I mean, the concept of who the hell wants to watch, you know, The Little Mermaid. These guys are delusional. Parents with kids? Yeah, but the average person doesn't want to give a shit about Little Mermaid after watching it one time and having no kids. They don't care. Oh, but they love it. They don't love it. Okay? None of this stuff is rocket science. They're very simple. If you have somebody like Sam that tells you what's real.
LRCX 0.00%↑ , memory. You need memory. You need chips. You need boxes. You need clouds. That's what's moving. And then we see. And then we see.
NOW 0.00%↑ , finally started to move. And now, if this damn ADBE 0.00%↑ goes, it's going to go up 50 points. Interesting. Interesting. Okay. Remember, we don't care about reality. We care about what our stock does. We make our money and then we're happy. That's trading.
If you bought TSLA 0.00%↑ and it goes to 10 bucks and Elon quits, you made your money. If you sold it, you're happy. If you fell in love, you're kind of pissed off.
Let's get started.
SPX was up. I don't even know what it's up. It was up a couple. Implied open, minus two. Okay. Minus two implied open. So that puts it at 5024. You got 5050 big number tomorrow on CPI. If it goes 5100, if the CPI is really low, if CPI is high, 4950.
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