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Good morning, good morning, good morning.
Stocks go up, stocks go down, then we see.
Wow, catching up on a little bit of sleep yesterday. Went to bed and did not wake up 20 times before 3:00 like usual when my phone beeps. So, did good, did good, did good. So, we're ready to go here today.
Very straightforward, I don't really understand why the market is down. They're selling it because they want to sell it. It's okay, it's okay. But here's the thing, for people who came to the event and are learning about premiums, there's a part of the premium thing that I didn't go into, but it's basic common sense.
Let's say, for example, Goldman Sachs yesterday—the premium was 5x too high, not just 2x, 5x. Goldman Sachs doesn't move 40 points on earnings. It just doesn't. Now, maybe it will this time, but it doesn't. So if it doesn't, and I mean it wasn't even 50 cents, it wasn't even a dollar, it was so crazy, right? So, it's really high. That's one thing—figuring out what it should be and then what it is and noting the deviation.
Now, here's another thing, here's the other side of it: today, the SPX is down 20; it was down 27 a few minutes ago. So, let's say it was down 30. You take 30 from 5475, where it is, and it's 5445. Right? So, 30 points down was only 170. I mean, if he thought this was going to continue going way down, why is that not five bucks? 30 points out of the money should have been five bucks. But you know why he didn't do that? Because he said we're already down 27 or say 30, we're already down 30, and the market doesn't go down 60. I mean, think about these freaking clowns on Twitter calling for 3500. I mean, they're closet bears. They sit in there and who knows what they do. Here's what they do: they're wrong every single day of their lives, and the market hasn't had a 2% down day in a year. It doesn't go down 100 points in a year.
So, now you go back and say, "Oh, look at what Sam's teaching me." He's telling me it hasn't gone down in a year, so why would the guy add premiums to go down 100 points? Are you going to bet on it going down 100 points if it hasn't in a year? Yeah, it'll happen, but if you keep betting on that and you're wrong 500 more times before it happens, here's the reality of the situation: if you get stupid, you deserve to get whacked. See, I'm the only guy in the world who will tell you that. If you do something dumb, your mom and dad are going to pat you on the back and say, "Oh, it's okay, it's okay," then they're going to go close their door in the bedroom and say, "Did you raise him, or did you raise him? Did you drop him? Maybe you dropped him, because he's dumb."
Well, in trading, it's a different life. If you do something dumb, you get whacked. Okay, very straightforward. So, that's very interesting.
Powell is going to talk today, and I think the market thinks—because the market gets stupid, or somebody in the market gets stupid—that he's going to say, "We're going to raise rates." They're not raising rates outside of a whole new inflation thing. I think there's a 99% chance that they don't raise rates. 99%. So why would you play to that, right? Very straightforward.
Okay, Tesla. How about Tesla? Sam doesn't buy Tesla. Sam doesn't buy Tesla. Sam buys Tesla, and it explodes up. Okay, today we got some numbers coming from them. Does it go up? 216 is a big number. SMCI had a nice pop; you could have got out, made money on the second batch, and covered the first batch and out. AVGO is still right there. If AVGO takes out the 1652, then it'll probably be ready. Oh, Tesla numbers are already out? Oh, look at that. See, Sam didn't wake up in the middle of the night this time. Interesting, interesting, interesting. Okay, good. So, let's see what happens. Tesla is very straightforward. 216 and it runs. But we added a week. See, we added a week. Why did we add a week? Because we knew it doesn't move as much and it fails a lot.
Okay, so we see today. Want to see Goldman Sachs. Goldman Sachs through 463 really accelerates. CrowdStrike got a big downgrade, it's way lower. Meta is still not going. I'm telling you, the big boys are not going to overpay if they have some type of historical trend like they guided down a second time. Unless they don't do that, they're not going to take Meta up until they realize he's not going to spend more money, then they will. Okay, watch AVGO. Very interesting. I really think AVGO is going to get to 1800 before the 15th. So, still two weeks. You know, then we see, then we see, then we see.
Everything's down a little bit, but not a ton. Let's see, let's see, let's see. I think this market is really going to pick up here after the Fourth. Okay, and that's what we know. That's what we know. Let me go look—comments, questions? Nothing big. Okay, let's get started. Okay, good morning, good morning, everybody.
SPX down 22. Take 22 from that; you got 4553, 4531, 4529, 4544. Sorry, 4409. Then 4409 on the downside. Ah, 5409. Jesus, I'm completely losing my mind today. 5509 is the big number to the upside. 5509. Okay, that's what we know. That's what we know on SPX. This is just a nothing move, so just wait.
AVGO, 1652, then next pop. NVDA, 119 down, 131 up. ASML, 1057, 1077. Earnings are two weeks out, so interesting, keep an eye on that. Lam Research, 1100, 1190. Meta needs 522 up, needs 459 down; it's a long way down. CrowdStrike, let it go down. If it goes down to, say, 371, then it becomes interesting. Okay, PANW, I think all of these will go down with CRWD, so just keep an eye on it. Let it go lower, let it go lower. AMD, 166, 168. Lilly down 20. Don't know what's going on with Lilly, but it's down 20; keep an eye on it. And then we see. Goldman Sachs, 463. Carvana was up to 136, it's way down, 131 big number. First Solar continues to work lower, drop it, drop it, drop the sucker down to 191, and then maybe they're not impacted, and then it goes.
For high prices, Biden and Sanders asked for higher prices on GLP. Higher prices, interesting. Ask Biden, he says no, and Nordis cuts Ozempic over prices. Low price, low price, low price. Okay, yeah, then we understand that. That would make sense. It doesn't mean to get it. Interesting. But I would agree; I think Lilly itself is too high. Snow actually looks good right now. It's down a lot. It's down 100 points. When something's down 100 points, yeah, it can go lower, but the odds are it has a pop. So, it looks a little bit better. Definitely looks better. Okay.
ARM, 161, 179 is a bogey way up there. Okay, Coin, 266, beast, been there forever. MicroStrategy, 1740, beast, been there forever. SMCI, 852, 903. Tesla, 21126. No, this thing has moved 120 points pretty much straight up and acting okay. 791, 822.
So, Biden is asking for lower prices. Does he get them? Who knows? I don't know. I don't know. But here's the thing: the reality of the situation and the presidents is very, very interesting. You say, "Man, these guys are smart, they became president." They're kind of dumb from certain aspects. They've asked Pharma for lower prices on all these drugs for 25 years. "Can we get this lower, can we get this lower?" And all their people go to the CEOs, and the CEOs say, "Yeah, we know, yeah, yeah, yeah." And then they leave, and they all say, "[Expletive] you." Because it doesn't work that way. The presidents can ask for anything they want, and nobody's going to do it unless you force them to do it. So, why don't they just force them to do it if they want to do it? Oh, well, they can't do that. So just understand that. Okay? Just understand that.
So, the basics of trading—we already did the numbers—the basics of trading, just trying to teach you guys some stuff, is to understand each side. The government doesn't understand the other side. The Walmart CEO raised prices on everything. If you raise the price to double and then, let's say, you raise the price of corn from 50 cents to a dollar and then you cut it to 90 cents, and then you
go put out a press release, "We just cut the price of 5,000 items," but they're still 90 cents from 50, and only idiots think they took prices down. I mean, there's another phenomenon out there, guys. Just go look. I mean, certain places, Dillard's and they're the king of this—they raised their prices on really nice shirts, Gold Label shirts, from 70 bucks to 90 bucks or 100 bucks, and then they do a 25% off sale. So now, 25% off is 75, so it's still higher than the 70 that it was, and everybody walks by there, "Oh my God, there's a sale," and those CEOs get paid to make their stock go up. And I don't understand why the government doesn't understand that. Really, really, really strange.
Now, if Sam was in the government, he would call them out. But we don't do that, so it's not real. So just understand that. Okay? All about Powell. Does Powell take the market positive today? Everybody have a great trading day. See you in chat.
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