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Good morning, good morning, good morning.
Stocks go up, stocks go down.
New month, 07/01.
Crazy, crazy, crazy week. How much fun was that? Vegas was so much fun. Jesus, I went nonstop all day long, all weekend long. No sleep, but don't need sleep when we get opportunities to meet wonderful people and do this stuff. You just do it and you remember stuff. Thank you, thank you, thank you. I appreciate everybody. I mean, you guys made my dad feel like a celebrity. Oh my God, it was so cool. I'm amazed. Thank you, there's nothing else to say.
Today, TSLA 0.00%↑ Tesla is saying good news in China. Keep an eye on it. You got 203, 209. If the numbers come out good, it could really, really get crazy. It could get crazy good. Okay, so keep an eye on it. Through 203, it can run 203, 209, 221.
This 36 billion to sell, that's gone. Now we have to figure out what happens this week. In theory, this is a good week to go up, but there's one issue: we have the Fourth of July, right? So it's a shorter week. If anything drops, the premium will come out.
Some things that are going to happen: I know AVGO 0.00%↑ is going to run. I know SMCI 0.00%↑ is going to run massive, both of them. I just don't know when. I think it happens in the next two to three weeks. I think $AVGO probably goes all the way to 1700 to 1900 somewhere in that range by the 15th. That's 15 days, I don't know when. I think $SMCI, as it approaches the 21st, people are going to get nervous that they pre-announce. So it happens then. Then we got to see how it plays out.
Things that happened Friday: $SMCI was at 900, and they sold it off, right? So you have a number there. You have a 903 trigger that can take this thing up 200 points. So then we see, we wait. Do we buy it before, do we buy it after, do we buy it for next week, do we buy it for two weeks out? These are all different opportunities to make money and how you go to do it, you have to go figure it out.
Now you've seen Friday live how Sam trades. He doesn't look at charts; all the numbers are in his head. He knows things are going to happen, he just doesn't know the when. But he knows you buy $AVGO, it goes from... you very simply could have bought $AVGO with Sam at 10. They went to 16, they went to 17, then they went to 5. Isn't that crazy? 16, 17, and they went to 5. They're right back to... I mean, it's not bad right now where they are this week. If it starts to take off, I mean, they're at 8. I mean, you're barely down. I mean, at the open here, if it pops to 1622, they're going to be 10 and a half. You're back even. But here's the thing: you could have sold the $AVGO to cover the $SMCI and let $SMCI run. Or you could have done what Sam did and said, 'Okay, expect zero,' and you go buy the NASDAQ puts. And you have to buy the $NDX puts, not the $SPX puts. I mean, these are things I talk about in the thing. So why the $NDX puts? Because you're buying $SMCI and you're buying $AVGO, and they're NASDAQ. So it doesn't help you if the SPX rips or the SPX crashes because you want the move from the $AVGO and $SMCI. So that's how you have to play this out.
But then Sam bought the NASDAQ and he sold the NASDAQ, and it covers both these positions, and they're free now. Yeah, free positions. But if they both still go to zero, then you're instead up 100 grand because they're free, you're going to be up 20. But that's okay. But today, watch this: are they going to trigger it and buy it?
Same thing with NVDA 0.00%↑ . Is $NVDA going to go back to this high? Now, what people don't understand, you may or may not understand AI, you may or may not believe in AI, but there's things that are going to happen. Let me tell you, if Biden were to drop out of the race, the market is going to explode up. I mean, it's going to go up like you can't believe. Now, this is not about Sam liking Biden or hating Biden because people have asked me a hundred times, 'Do you like Biden or do you hate Biden? Do you like Trump or do you hate Trump?' And I say, I don't give a shit. I don't care who the hell the president is. I only care what happens to the market, how they drive the market. After 3:00, after the market is closed, then you can care about Trump or Biden. But when the market is open, I really don't give a fuck who the president is. And nobody should. You should not care. You're trying to trade during those hours, so you want to do whatever is good for your trading during those hours. Afterward, you can wear your Trump shirt or your Biden shirt or whatever you want to do, but during those hours, you need to be apolitical. If you're political during those hours, you're going to go to shit, you're going to do something dumb. It doesn't matter. I'm telling you. Just like if you're a football player, during the hours that you're playing, you're a football player. After that, you can go give a fuck about whatever you want to care about.
So understand this stuff. This is how the world works. I'm telling you how the world works. I'm pretty good at this. You've seen that. So understand that. But so, I'm just telling you up front, if he were to drop out today, the market is up 150 handles. It just is. Doesn't mean it doesn't drop tomorrow, but it just is. So why is that? Come on, I'm trying to get you guys to think here. So just type in why. Why does the market rip 150 handles if Biden drops out?
This is really clear as hell. Everybody should know this. And nobody's typing. Every one of you should know this. No, there's not less uncertainty. Good, good, good try. No, guys, what's the one thing Biden's doing that pisses off Wall Street more than everybody, and what pisses you off more? There you go, taxes. Taxes. That's it. It's that simple. It's taxes. Very simple.
The market, this is not about liking Trump. This is about, 'Oh, he's not going to destroy people with taxes.' That's it. That's all it's about. It has nothing to do with the rest of the political realm. It's very, very simple. That's why it explodes up. Doesn't mean it stays up because two days later you'll get somebody else coming in and say they're going to do the same thing. So that's why. See, this kind of thinking can make you great because you know there's an opportunity he may drop out, and that's the day we make all our money. So learn from stuff like this.
Let's get going here.
$SPX up about 10. I don't know if it moved more or not. Just setting everything up still. Got home, did a bunch of stuff, had literally over a thousand messages between DMs and Twitter, and then I created another nightmare for myself because I like to do that. I saw this trading house and got over 150 messages, and I started looking at houses for two hours for no reason right now because I'm not going to do it this week. But so I spent a couple hours there. There are a lot of them, but a lot of fun. This is going to be so much fun. Think about it, a trading house with 10 or 15 bedrooms, everybody's in there, sitting around a table. Oh my God, no, I mean, it's going to be pretty cool. So we're going to figure that out too.
$SPX 5472. Anything over 5509 is a screaming buy. 5552. Underneath 5400, bad.
$AVGO, very straightforward here. You got two numbers in $AVGO. Guys, if I taught you anything, you should know both those numbers. You got 1621, but now you have this 1642. So any break of 1652 puts you on the path to hit 1760. Jesus, wow. And then we see, and then we see.
$NVDA 126, 131. Accelerator under 116, bad.
ASML 0.00%↑ 1077.
LRCX 0.00%↑ 1100, 1190.
META 0.00%↑ a little bit better. Every time $META gets to 321, I keep telling you guys, all you people that are in love, you're in love. You go, you buy $META, and you go, you start making memes about $META. I love $META. You guys don't freaking understand it. Last time they pre-announced, they pre-announced the second bad time. So all the big funds know this, and if they don't miss, it's going to be 358. But there's a possibility that they guide down one more time, so that takes it to 400. That's why it's not breaking out. But we're going to go buy the 570s for earnings just for the hell of it, but not yet.
CRWD 0.00%↑ CrowdStrike 391.
PANW 0.00%↑ Palo Alto looks a little bit better. Something's going on with it because this should not be up. This should be at 320. It's at 346. But let me tell you, if for some reason their business got better, this is hitting 400.
AMD 0.00%↑ 166.
LLY 0.00%↑ 916.
GS 0.00%↑ a little bit better if they like this stuff. 462, 471.
CVNA 0.00%↑ very interesting. So if you watch things minute by minute, second by second, and you're trying to learn all these numbers, you're trying to memorize stuff like Sam. I mean, trying to memorize 250 people's names as they come up to you. Sam struggles with that. So $CVNA, it hits 133, it goes to 126, it sits there for 2 hours and 15 minutes, then it pops to 130. It goes back to 133. The next morning it goes back down and it pops to 135. It tries to break up and it goes back down. Does it delay a third time today? And if it gets to 126 or 136, I think it goes to 142. So 136 would be the trigger.
FSLR 0.00%↑ collapsing. We had it at 305, it's down to 224. This is okay. Let it go lower and then it'll come back up. The other reason it's down is if Biden were to leave, Trump is less favorable to all the EVs and solar and green and all that stuff. So just understand that.
ARM 0.00%↑ 169, 179 trigger.
COIN 0.00%↑ trying to go 266.
MSTR 0.00%↑ 1452. 1741 is a beast.
SMCI 0.00%↑ , can it get back through 872? This thing just aggravates the shit out of me.
$TSLA, I'm going to look at the 205s at open very fast. We'll look at them. No, doesn't drop. Something is going on like a pre-announcement. If it were to come, this thing is going to 260.
That's all we got.
What did I miss? Hold on, let me get back by my screen. Okay, that's what we got.
Everybody have a great trading day. Thank you, thank you, thank you. That's all I can say. Thank you. If you still want to watch the video, if you've signed up either you came out in person or you paid to watch the streaming, you can log in. It will be there till Friday. Friday, I'll probably take it out because I'm not going to share this premium stuff with anybody anymore. I'm just not going to do it. I probably may do it later and go charge them $9,999, $10,000 for the same video. So if you want to watch it, go watch it till Friday. And then we see, then we see, then we see.
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