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Good morning, good morning everyone
07/03, short day today - market will close at 11AM PST.
Yesterday, how much fun was that? How much fun was that? How much fun was that? Very straightforward. Today, you have a half day. Tomorrow is closed, and then it's Friday, just like that. Okay, so just understand that. It's a very short week.
Tesla continues to run. It was at 239 this morning, so you need to watch it. Under 231 would be bad; over 239 would be good. It's a grand winner. We have the 215s for next week and the 250s for two weeks out. Manage your account, manage your account, manage your account.
Okay, we hear you. Thank you, thank you, thank you. So that's what we know. SPX is—you know, I didn't even know what SPX is doing. It was just doing nothing earlier. Give me a second here; let me get to the computer. Okay, and it's down four, so nothing really happening.
People don't understand the market. It's really funny to me how CNBC and the people there don't understand the market. These guys are talking about Tesla and they're like, "Tesla is no better than it was," and this and that. Who gives a [ __ ]? Nobody gives a [ __ ] if Tesla is better or worse. We just care that our stock is going up or down. Why don't they learn to just say, "Okay, regardless of what you think about Tesla and the Tesla news, is the stock going to go up or down?"
They had the same discussion about Nvidia at 300 and at 350, and then it went to 400. The same four idiots on CNBC said Nvidia is way overvalued and can't go up. Then that Dan guy says, "I'm going to short it." Why would anybody short Tesla into 88? It doesn't make any sense. Don't follow people unless you're like Sam. Sam is ridiculously cocky. Elon Musk or whoever could be sitting next to me telling me something, and I'm just an idiot. I have my beliefs and I know what's going to happen. If you're that good, then you know.
Now, if someone points out something, like "Tesla is going to go down because they're going to miss earnings," we all know they're going to miss earnings. There is nothing new about Tesla. So just understand that. But 239 is a big number because it was there at 3:00 right when it opened up. So that's a big number; gotta see if it gets there. If it gets there, it gets there. At 240, those 215s are going to be 27—wow, 27—they're next week's. Then we see, then we see, then we see.
AVGO trying to go, trying to go, but the one that's moving today is ASML. ASML is up like 10 or 12. See if it takes off. If it takes off, the chips will go. AMD is very interesting here. These guys said this [ __ ] about Google, which aggravated me for months on end. Every day, some reporter at the Wall Street Journal or somewhere writes an article saying Nvidia is going to get antitrust charges. Every single day, they did this for Google for almost six months. Every single day they tell you Google's going to get an antitrust charge. Now they're doing the same thing with Nvidia and they're wrong. It might happen six months down, eight months down, two years down, five years down.
Think about if you're a reporter and you're wrong. See, Sam is ridiculously different from everybody else. If you tell me something and you're wrong about the market going down for a month, I don't follow you. If you work for me, I fire you. If you work for anybody else, I tell them to fire you. You just can't be wrong over and over and over again. Change your mind if you're wrong. WR. Don't tell me you're going to be right in 10 years. I don't care. I only care about now. So just understand that.
So this antitrust thing, if it comes this week, do they buy AMD on the antitrust news? We know it doesn't mean anything. We know Nvidia isn't going to lose a single sale. Nothing is going to happen. Just like nothing happened to Google, nothing happened to Microsoft. But it doesn't mean for that one day they don't buy AMD, right? That's the interesting thing. So keep an eye on that.
Carvana trying to break out. SMCI was down at open; this was 8:30. At 3:00, it's 8:44. Would love to see this rip to 872 or 880. Love to see AVGO rip to 1,700. Then we go to Friday and have fun. Goldman Sachs also trying to go. Bitcoin breaking lower. Let it go lower. Chill, relax. But Tesla was the important one. If it takes out 239, it's going to run for the few hours we have today. That's what we know, that's what we know, that's what we know. Then we see, then we see, then we see.
Okay, let's get going here. 7/3, 7/4. Tomorrow I'm going to be in Dallas tonight somewhere doing something. We're going to figure out something to do. Just letting you know, today and tomorrow, I don't have any plans yet. So let's see; we may do something to hang out, etc. Down six here. You're right at 5500. How about that close yesterday? 5509. Sam says 5509, it closes at 5509. Nobody in the world can do this. It's pretty funny.
5521, 5552 by Friday if things are good. Downside 5481. No compelling reason to go down. What's the compelling reason? Because somebody says he's not going to cut rates? Who cares? Nobody cares what anybody thinks anymore because they just don't have a clue. They make [ __ ] up. All these guys are making [ __ ] up. "Oh, we need to be positive before we cut rates." You're not going to be positive on anything in your life. You're not even positive enough that your wife likes you that day because of the stuff you say. So be serious. You're never going to be positive. You just cut rates if you think your f are going to go higher. You don't do anything if you think it's going to give you cut rates. You don't say, "I'm going to look at every number." You're going to get numbers for the next four months, and they're going to go this way and that way, and you're going to learn nothing. And then the president's going to change or not, and whoever is the new president is going to fire your Powell because he's an idiot who can't make a decision. That's what they're going to do.
In 10 years, AI is going to be running the Fed, and it's going to do stuff based on news, up and down, and you're going to have no clue how the algorithm works. AVGO, 1682, 1700, 1740. Underneath, 1600.
Nvidia doing nothing. We told you Nvidia is unplayable now. Back to unplayable. Nvidia is not moving at all. It's not moving at all. Two points. Unplayable. They killed the stock. Had a chance for a few days; now it doesn't do anything. Probably will move into earnings, and then we see. 122, 126.
Amazon 200, 203, 209.
ASML, 1055, which is over that, and 1077. I actually like it for earnings, but they are $17 on the 1100s. Jesus, it has to go $70 to get better.
Lam Research 1100, 1109.
Meta, 522.
CrowdStrike 391.
PANW 346.
AMD 166, 169, 172 accelerator.
Goldman Sachs, does it get to 271?
Carvana 131.
First Solar, let it go lower, continues to go lower, and we'll look at the 230s.
ARM trying to break up, 163, 169.
Coin doing nothing, 219, 266. Beast.
MicroStrategy working lower, 1740. Beast.
SMCI 852, 872, 903.
TSLA, look at Tesla go lower. Go slowly, go lower. 239.
NOW broke over. 791, so see if it can get to 800.
That's what we know, that's what we know, that's what we know.
Can you hold NASDAQ through the close like SPX and get paid cash? Yes, the NASDAQ closes in the money, you get paid. If it's out of the money, you don't get paid.
That's what we know, that's what we know, that's what we know.
SNOW still not doing anything. Keep an eye on it.
Once Tesla solves autonomous, it goes nuts. Absolutely. Exactly. Gary Black says if you're short Tesla, you have to check your head. That's what I said yesterday. I told everybody when Tesla was way down there, it was down another 15 points. I said, who could be short? It's finally breaking up after 18 months. After 18 months, you can't be short!
Interesting, interesting. Everybody have a great trading day. Thanks, everyone. See you in chat.
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