You don't want to miss this Sunday's macro-market Research Report, with market leading insights, analysis and sequentially defined quant data. This one is a doozie, some 5000+ words/charts/tables under construction! (“AYNI” founders membership req.)
NO PROBABILITY EXISTS FOR YOUR EMERGENCY RATE CUT BETS. YOUR MONEY WILL FIND A BETTER FIDUCIARY.
NO SUCH THING AS RISK-OFF/SELL signal.
It’s about how much or how little exposure, what are the forward cyclical probabilities, but always ride… or die!
1. If you have to consider today, tomorrow, next week, you're doing investing wrong.
2. Down is good, up is simply reward for acting appropriately on formerly cheaper prices.
3. Markets don't crash from strong breadth, they crash from oversold breadth.
4. Build your resources
A $VIX that rises and falls this quickly… not typically associated with the end of a market trend but rather with a long tailwind of gains ahead! Signal details inside this weekend’s macro-market Research Report at finomgroup.com
Both the SVB liquidity event and Japan Carry Trade liquidity event proved tops for VIX and BOTTOMS for $SPX, as indicated by our market outlook from this past weekend's Research Report.
Are you surprised by a forward 12-month P/E 21X? Remember, markets are forward discounting mechanisms, and never argue with me, I'm you first, FACT-BASED alert system 😉
Why do we inflation adjust? When is CPI ever flat Y/Y ? There's always some degree of ROC, always. We're solving for a NEVER to remove...? Oddly, do we ever see the exercise rationalizing recessions/deflation? Just interesting, human behavior...
We really needed to do this exercise to decipher with ~$1.5trn in EXCESS SAVINGS how much was increased spending? To assuage what? These are my baselines. How did we not know, intuitively, the consumer was pretty darn strong, that we needed to inflation adjust?
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