Daily Plan 03.05.24
Hey, good morning, good morning, morning.
Stocks go up, stocks go down.
Amazing day yesterday, again. SMCI 0.00%↑ started the week great, and they gave you an opportunity on NVDA 0.00%↑ .
The amount of stupidity out there, look, trading is about stupidity. When people do stupid stuff, okay, if that's you, you get beat up. If other people do dumb stuff, it gives you an opportunity.
Last night, Nvidia was up after hours, up six. Okay, now, first of all, people are messaging, saying, "Well, why did NVDA drop? It was up 48 points." Guys, it was up 48. So, it ended up up 20. What the hell's wrong with that? It's fine, right?
Okay, so it came down a little bit, no big deal. And then you get a thing out there that says AMD 0.00%↑ can't sell to China. Well, we had that story. Same story that said, NVDA can't sell to China. That was a year ago. AMD already went through that. But, AMD drops six, and Nvidia drops another 10. I mean, how stupid is that? What does AMD not being able to sell to China have to do with Nvidia? I mean, this is utter insanity of complete stupidity. Okay, so that gave you an opportunity.
And this morning, pre-market, it was 843! You could have bought the stock and you're up $20. Okay, really, really insane stuff from the market. When the market gives you opportunity, I posted out there on public Twitter, I said, "What a gift." I mean, and it's up 10, and it recovered the 7.
I mean, I have no problem Nvidia going down 50 or 80 because it's up too high. You can tell me it's up too high. You can tell me they're going to miss earnings. All that is okay. Valid reason as to why they go down. But to go down 15 points because AMD can't sell. And I told you yesterday, I did my rant on AMD. The AMD is shit! They don't have an AI chip that works good. They don't. That's it. You can believe whatever you want. Now, once again, doesn't mean that AMD doesn't go up. It just means it's not as good as Nvidia. That's it. Fact. That's it. Fact. Okay?
So, understand that. So, today, AMD goes lower. Probably. Maybe it pops back up. But they got dumb on AMD calls too. We sold ours. They got dumb. I mean, AMD 10 points out of the money on Monday. At the max, maybe 80 cents. They got to $4. I mean, complete ludicrousness.
Let's talk about premiums. I'm going to give you some gifts here. Okay? So, get your pencil. Come on. Get your pencil. Give you a minute. I'll give you a minute.
So, MSTR 0.00%↑ . That was at 720. Write that down. The stock is at 720. We buy the 800 calls at $9. Monday morning. Okay? We paid $9 for 80 points out of the money. Okay, you got it? Got it. Okay. So, yesterday, it closed at 1334. Write that down. 1334. Write it under the 720. Okay? And then write down the 1,500 calls. Under the 800. And it's at $78. 160 points away is $80. 160 points away is $80. $78. We bought it 80 points away for $9. He's added premium. Complete stupidity. I mean, complete stupidity. I wouldn't even pay $9 for those because we paid $9 for $80 out of the money. Why would you pay $80 for something 160-170 out of the money?
That's all you have to know about premiums. I'm just telling you that if you learn that alone, that will tell you how to do premiums.
TGT 0.00%↑ . Nailed Target. It's going to go higher. Probably goes to 166, 172. We'll get out of those. A double, maybe a little bit more. Not a bad dollar play for people looking for small plays. A dollar play.
COIN 0.00%↑ is moving. I don't know if Coinbase got an upgrade, but it's moving. MicroStrategy. So, we talked about MicroStrategy a while back. And when it was at 800, the market cap was 12 billion. The market cap has gone up 10 billion. And Bitcoin hasn't. It's so stupid priced right now. I discussed this in our free SLACK CHAT with more detail. You can't even imagine it. It's in a squeeze. It's not even worth maybe 1040 here. Doesn't mean it doesn't go up, guys. When I tell you stuff, I'm telling you what reality is. Doesn't mean reality is what's happening. Two different things. Okay? Okay, so just understand that.
TSLA 0.00%↑ . I've been telling you Tesla is garbage and has had no good news for three months. For three months, I think it's trendspider and who's that other guy that they just keep posting Tesla charts? Oh my God, this is in the volume gap. Oh my God, this is great. They've been wrong every day for three months. I mean, this is how dumb people that look at charts. I don't care. The Tesla chart looks good. Every single bit of news item is negative. And if it takes out 174, it's probably 150, 150. Complete collapse.
SMCI needs 1155. We sold those. What a play. We sold those. We rolled, sold and rolled. That's what you do.
META 0.00%↑ , can it get over 504? If it does, you got next wave.
Coinbase is running. I don't know if COIN got an upgrade. If it has an upgrade, let me know. Let me know, let me know. Interesting, interesting.
Okay, look. Musk doesn't give a shit about Tesla. Okay, that's it. And he doesn't care. And he doesn't need to care. Here's the thing you need to know about billionaires. Okay, if you have a billion and you go to 900 million, they probably care. If you have 50 billion and you go to 40 billion, they don't care. They don't care, okay? So, that's all you need to know. Bezos never cared that AMZN 0.00%↑ was going down. He didn't give a shit. And that's okay because if you had, and I'm going to be honest with you, if you had $100 million and you lost three or four, you don't care. And if you lost 20 million, you don't care. You're going to go do your thing. You're going to have fun, okay? So, just understand that. It doesn't matter, okay?
So, Coinbase is starting to move, okay? Today, you got Target. We nailed that one.
And let's talk a little bit about CRWD 0.00%↑ , ZS 0.00%↑ . So, ZScaler beats. They guide up massive. And the stock drops 25… because ZScaler is going to make $3. $3 times, let's give them 40 PE. That's $120 on the stock, okay? CrowdStrike going to beat. They're going to guide up. Everyone's going to pump it. And they're going to make $4. It's a 40PE. It's $160 stock. Doesn't mean it doesn't go to 380 or 400, but that's what it's worth right now. Doesn't mean it has to trade what it's worth, but if it does and they say it's too high, then PANW 0.00%↑ is going to drop to 260.
Now, Pelosi bought this before she knew they were going to start a price war. Now, she probably knows. What I think they know is there's going to be a big contract that's going to be given to these Zscaler or Palo Alto. So, they're going to make a lot of money. But doesn't mean they're going to make money right away. Maybe PANW goes to 220 and then six months later, it rips up. Pelosi does good and you get smoked, okay? Understand that. So, today, if CrowdStrike guides down, and if CrowdStrike even implies that there's a price war, PANW is going to be 260. Doesn't mean it doesn't go up. Expect zero.
Okay, one last thing here. We'll get started. We got some messages yesterday. Says, "Banana, I just can't pick a winner." And, well, Banana is like, "you messaged me and you told me you have Coinbase calls at three." Yes, well, it's at 460 and it's there for 30 minutes and you didn't sell it and you can't pick a winner. What's that say about you guys? What's that say?
If you turn a winner into a loser, reevaluate what you're doing. Reevaluate what you're doing. There's no such thing. When I started trading, I didn't have a lot of money. I would borrow money and you go slow. You don't just say, 'I'm going to put five grand in here and I want 10x. I'm not selling till 10x or 20x.' You don't do that. I mean, doesn't make any sense.
Here comes Target.
Okay, and that's what we know. That's what we know.
Okay, let's get going.
Good morning. Good morning, everybody. 3/5
SPX / SPY 0.00%↑ is down a little bit. Is it down 15? I think it was down 15. Hold on. Let me look. Down 19. Good. Let it go down. You got 5111 down. So that's where it's at. 5100, 5082, and 5152 up.
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