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PANW 0.00%↑ CEO, he actually used to be a pretty good guy. I mean a pretty smart guy. He just got stupid. Okay, there's no other way to say it. Customers are getting frustrated. They're getting fatigued. They're fatigued on how much they're spending. Well, people are fatigued at CMG 0.00%↑ . When you go to Chipotle, they're fatigued. When you go to Denny's and two eggs, two bacon, used to be $3.99. Here in California, $18.99. I mean, people are fatigued everywhere. You don't come out and say folksy is fatigued. This thing is down almost 100 points. Okay, but now what you have to understand is if he's saying people are fatigued, then he comes out and he goes, "Well, I shouldn't have said that." You know, are these guys just idiots? You just can't be stupid. You can't be stupid. Okay, you're going to make $5.50. Okay, so let's give him the benefit of the doubt and say he's going to make $6 for the year. You times it by 30. The stock's at $180. It's at $180. The stock was at $380.
Okay, so now let's go to CRWD 0.00%↑ . It's supposed to make $0.87 cents. So let's say they make a dollar. Times it by four, okay? It's $4. And times that, you know, by a 30 PE, a 30 PE is $120. A 40 PE is $160. CrowdStrike should be $160. It's at $290.
ZS 0.00%↑ is supposed to make $0.60 cents. Times it by four. $2.40 times, uh, four, let's say $2.50 at 40 PE is $100. It's trading at $220. Today may be the tech wreck of ages in these.
Okay, he says, "Oh, we're transitioning to a new platform, a new thing." Well, IBM 0.00%↑ transitioned. Cowboys been transitioning. Nobody wants to hear transitioning in the greatest environment ever. We're going to transition. Wow, okay, so this is what can happen.
The PANW 300 puts with 30 cents are going to go to $30. But I don't think PANW is done. I think it's got $220 written all over it. I think CrowdStrike is going to go to $200 and ZScaler is going to get imploded. They're just going to implode. Now, is it just them? Maybe. Maybe not. But it doesn't matter. That's what's showing you. I mean, SMCI broke and it came back up.
Now, let's talk about SMCI 0.00%↑ . Yesterday, we bought some. We only bought three contracts at $19 because I don't want to pay too much money. And if it goes down, you get whacked, right? Early in the week… so you only bought three. But then when it hit $700 and it held and it held and it popped back up over $700, we said, "Okay, now it's only $10." And they went all the way to $28. They went to $28. You can trade them. Get out. We bought 30 that time, okay? Now they're going to open back down at about $16. And it's all about NVDA 0.00%↑ .
If Nvidia were to say we're transitioning, Nvidia will hit $550. It may hit $500, okay? It doesn't matter how good the earnings are. It matters if your CEO gets stupid. Now, Jensen has never been stupid. He's never said stupid stuff. But it's always possible because these guys, I mean, they just get dumb. They get dumb, okay?
Now, if Jensen wants Nvidia to rip, he needs to do some several things. He needs to split the stock, okay? He needs to say that he's got more orders for many years out and he needs to give the guide for a year out. Now I understand it went from 12 or 11 months to four months, but if you have visibility to tell me there's 11 months worth of backlog, why are you not giving me a one-year estimate?
Really?!
Every stock used to do that years and years ago, okay? So now all these things, I mean, think about where they go and where they came from. I mean, you're going to know this right off the bat at the beginning. Bitcoin hits $53,000 and drops. MSTR 0.00%↑ was way up. It's down now. COIN 0.00%↑ was up. It's coming back down, uh, that's the market you have.
But let me tell you this PANW thing is real. I don't know why he would say it. It's just a stupid thing to say. I don't know what to say, just dumb, okay? It is, Sam tells it like it is all the time, okay?
LLY 0.00%↑ is over for a while. Last time it dropped, it went to $642 and it dropped and went to $560, okay? So $40 and $42 is 82 points. It dropped 82 points, so you take 82 points off this high, you know, that Lily got to, you know, uh, $793, just round it to $90. You're somewhere about around the $703 level, okay?
Look, when they fail and they drop, people get out and they don't get back in in a day. It takes them time.
Now, I got a message yesterday. I sent it to them and they said, "Is AMD 0.00%↑ ready?" I said, "I don't know." AMD, once again, Sam's four to six weeks. If you just pay attention to the four to six weeks, you don't buy it. It just won't go up. It will not go up, okay? That's it. It's 98% accurate, okay?
So if you're buying things that go down on earnings, they won't go up.
But this PANW, let me tell you, if this takes out $352, it's going to be $310 and you've got a quarter of their employees going to start looking for other jobs, okay? I'm telling you, they just will, because that's the world we live in. If you have a stock and you're working in a company and it's at $400, and then, and let's say you're worth $10 million, and the next day, you're worth $5 million, and then over the next four weeks, you're worth $2 million, you start looking for another job, you just do, okay? I don't care if you say, "No, I don't." , well, you just do.
Look, I worked at TXN 0.00%↑ . I had 20,000 options. The stock was at $92 and the idiot went and bought Burr-Brown. He bought a 2% margin company to a company that makes 30% margin. The stock dropped 20. They threw Sam in the corner when Sam told them he was an idiot, okay? So just understand that, okay? So I know stocks more than all these CEOs. They don't have a clue, okay? And then we see, and then we see, but you have opportunities! If Nvidia rips and it goes up a hundred, PANW is probably going to go back to about $390, $392, then you short it again, and for the next four to six weeks, it will drop lower and lower and lower.
But today, I'm interested in CrowdStrike. If it gets back near $300, we go buy the $290s and then you can use it as a hedge too, because if Nvidia craters, all the techs are going to crater, okay? They're all going to crater. It's really, really that simple, okay?
Fed minutes coming out here. Look, he told you he’s not gonna cut. He's not gonna cut, okay? This time… he will cut in a couple months, okay? So that's what we know, and that's what we know today.
What you want to watch is you want to watch Nvidia and you want to watch SMCI. If SMCI breaks over $800 in the first 15 minutes, then they think Nvidia is going to be okay. It's a proxy, okay? And back to Nvidia. Nvidia needs to get back, get to $700. $700 is probably a round number where it can sit at, and then we see, and then we see, and then we see.
But the CEO of PANW caused a massive, massive PE panic. This is a PE panic, the price-to-earnings, okay? So just do the math. At $6, at a 30PE, he's $180. At a 40PE, he's $240. He's $240. We're like, "Oh, you're going to grow 2%? You decided you're going to change your business." If you're going to change your business while you're trading at an 80PE? Nice, nicely smart. I mean, unbelievable. It's unbelievable.
These guys don't want to pay Sam. Pay Sam, say, "Hey, there's this guy on Twitter who's an absolute genius on what my stock's going to do if I say something. Let me tell you what if I say this, what's going to happen?" Let me tell you, if Jensen says, over the course of the next few years, we're going to slow down, the stock is at $300, it's at $300, okay? Now, is he going to say that? I don't think so, but you never know. You never ever ever know, okay? So that's what we know. That's what we know. That's what we know. And then we see.
Look, AMAT 0.00%↑ , Applied Materials went to $211. It's down $30 back to where it was, and the earnings are that good. Now, there's another thing that you guys need to be aware of, and just keep this in mind. Every single earnings winner goes down the following week. Every single one, except for SMCI. Every single earnings winner. COIN rocketed to $190. It's down to $166 the following week, right? Every single one. AMAT rockets up to $211, goes negative. That's the scenario, so let's say Nvidia rips to $900. Just making up stuff. Does it go down $70 or $80 the following week? That's a scenario that's out there. It doesn't matter what position you have, expect zero. If you don't expect zero, you will fail in this trading. You just will.
I don't care if you use stops. There's no such thing as stops, okay? If you had a stop in on SMCI at a thousand, you probably got $950. You didn't get a thousand, okay? So they don't work. It's just made up BS. Don't do that.
But I'm really aggravated today on the CEO of PANW. But that implies ZScaler could be $200 pretty fast and CrowdStrike can be $250 pretty fast on earnings. So, and then we see, and then we see, and then we see. That's what we know. That's what we know.
TSM 0.00%↑ sells 850 shares of ARM 0.00%↑ Holdings. Okay, nice. Interesting. On Nvidia, if you want to play Nvidia to the upside, you could play ARM 0.00%↑ . Okay, you could play LRCX 0.00%↑ , ASML 0.00%↑ , NOW 0.00%↑ , SMCI, META 0.00%↑ , okay? If you want to play to the downside, you can play the same on to the downside, okay? And then we see, and then we see, and then we see. And that's what we know. That's what we know.
All about Nvidia ER. The Fed minutes, we all know it doesn't really mean anything.
And SPX is finally starting to break lower here again, so but it's not down at time, you know, 4900 is a big number. And then we see.
Even Tom Lee said he goes, he called it buying exhaustion. These guys, what the hell do they do? This is stupid CEO 101. This is what they do. Hey, read over my speech or something, and somebody says, "Okay, let me get a thesaurus and see what word we can do to make people panic." Exhaustion, really? What the hell is that? Just, oh, it's, you know, people are just slowing down their buying. Just talk in normal thing. Don't make up words that are going to make people panic.
Unbelievable. That's what we know.
Okay, let's get started.
Good morning, good morning, everybody.
Hey, you like that rant? 2/21
SPX. You got 4971 up, 4962 but does it hit 4900 if Nvidia misses?
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