Daily Plan 02.15.24
Good morning Traders-
Look at SMCI 0.00%↑ ; it just doesn't stop. It dropped 50 yesterday, but it didn't go negative; it got it all back. It's gone to a thousand. So, if you go look, there's a tweet out there, and I don't know how real, okay, because people just tweet anything. It says SMCI 0.00%↑ is only two times sales for 2025. NVDA 0.00%↑ is at 25 times sales. Wow, if that's true, SMCI 0.00%↑ at 1,200, maybe 1,600. I mean, complete madness.
NFLX 0.00%↑ , yeah, did look better yesterday, but it just trades bad, guys. I don't like trading stuff, and you know ADBE 0.00%↑ done this lately too. It goes up one day, it goes up 20 or 30, and then it doesn't move for two weeks. I mean, that's just aggravating as all hell, right? That's one of the first things you have to learn in options is to quit playing those things. Okay, but SMCI 0.00%↑ continues to go. Where does it go? I would think till NVDA 0.00%↑ earnings come out. I don't think it collapses. It may go down, but I don't think it collapses.
Somebody sold the 800 puts on SMCI 0.00%↑ for $3 billion. That means if it goes under 800, he's going to get put all those stocks, and I mean he just doesn't think it's going to happen. So, very, very interesting.
TWLO 0.00%↑ CEO still garbage. You got to play the things we didn't buy many, so just a few. You know, we only bought like 50 of them, so nothing compared to what we're doing on the upside. So, you do some, you knew the earnings were going to be good; the earnings were great. The earnings were great; it's just the guy, these CEOs, they're just losers. Let me tell you, they're just losers, okay? BA 0.00%↑ CEO, UPST 0.00%↑ CEO, they just don't understand the world, and worse than that, it's the people they put on the board.
Now let's go to META 0.00%↑ , was at 477 when I got up, so just know that if it gets through 477, it's probably going to go, okay?
So just understand that. Interesting, interesting, interesting.
Does ARM 0.00%↑ squeeze next? Maybe.
SMCI 0.00%↑ , 972?
NOW 0.00%↑ , is trying. Can it get through 800?
But tonight, you have the big boy, you have Applied Materials reporting, and it's the big boy of the big boys. And if AMAT 0.00%↑ pops to 200, LRCX 0.00%↑ probably 970. But it takes up NVDA 0.00%↑ ; it takes up ASML 0.00%↑ ; it takes up SMCI 0.00%↑ ; it takes up all the chips. So, that's the one that's going to tell us, okay?
There are a lot of dumb people in the world; don't be one of them. If you tell me I like IBM 0.00%↑. I don't care, IBM 0.00%↑ is going up. I don't care. Nobody cares about IBM 0.00%↑ . If IBM 0.00%↑ wants to become an SMCI 0.00%↑ , they need to change their name. And IBM 0.00%↑ is synonymous with, oh, 1980 stock that suck for the next 40 years.
Intel, INTC 0.00%↑ , is branded huge; if wants to be a good stock, they need to change their name. All the kids, nobody cares about them, okay? I understand everybody says, "Well, you have this huge thing." Well, did Elon not have Twitter? Twitter had its own name; he changed it to X. It doesn't matter.
When you have a name that's gone to shit, CSCO 0.00%↑ has gone to shit, 25 years of nothing, 25 years of garbage. Why would somebody go buy some 25-year-old garbage... Look at Pfizer. PFE 0.00%↑ hasn't moved in 10 years. In 10 years, it can't go up, and people keep buying Pfizer. Oh my God, Pfizer is good. Oh my God, Gilead's good. They're not. They either have to change their name or do something different, and they don't do it, okay? So, understand this.
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I think SNOW 0.00%↑ is going to go to 280-290. But it's still two weeks out, okay?
But NVIDIA can drive everything, so today you want to watch NVDA 0.00%↑ 744. If it gets to 744, probably can go to 770. But AMAT 0.00%↑ can drive it tomorrow. So, then we see, and then we see. Okay? ASML 0.00%↑ was all the way up to 933; if it gets through it, it really runs.
One thing about yesterday, people keep asking and sending messages. Guys, I try, I do so much, you guys don't understand. I answer everything and stuff, but asking me a question, "What's the number for SMCI 0.00%↑ ?" and not in our free subscriber chat. That's kind of dumb, right? At least if you just ask it on Substack, not in the DM, then I reply to it and everybody gets it. Why wouldn’t I send that number in our Substack chat to 500 people asking the same question? Just send it in chat; it's a regular message, guys. Pretty straightforward.
Then another one, a guy sent me this message, he says, "Sam, you bought a shit CEO, absolutely. You don't have to buy it. You don't have to buy it. If you're up $2 million and you put in five grand, do you care?" See, this is the concept people still don't get.
A guy yesterday said, " SMCI 0.00%↑ , this is not going to end well; people are going to get obliterated." How do you get obliterated if you bought the option, you made half a million dollars, and you're going in with 10 grand, 20 grand every week on SMCI 0.00%↑ , and at some point, you lose 20 grand but you made 500? How do you get obliterated? See that concept they don't understand. The concept of play with profits, take some shots. You can't get beat up. Like, we're up two-plus million. I mean, if we put in 100 to 200 grand a week, we can't get beat up for eight weeks or 10 weeks or 12, 15 weeks. We can't lose money. How is it bad?
Now, you could see yesterday and the day before, I'm kind of lighter, right? Not doing a ton of trades, just waiting because you're waiting for META 0.00%↑ to break.
MicroStrategy is breaking; this Bitcoin looks like it can go to 62,000 any day, and the MSTR 0.00%↑ is at a thousand. And I'm waiting for some of these. We bought ARM 0.00%↑ 180s. Why do we go so far out? Because if it squeezes, it's going to go to 160; those will go to 3x. You don't have to buy them; we're just taking some shots. If you don't have any profits this year, why would you go buy UPST 0.00%↑ or TWLO 0.00%↑ or whatever? If you have profits, then maybe you take some shots, okay? Then we see, then we see, then we see.
Here comes ASML 0.00%↑ ; this ASML 0.00%↑ can get to a thousand. Go. I mean, you need it to make NVDA 0.00%↑ chips, and if you're telling me SMCI 0.00%↑ is good, ASML 0.00%↑ is better. ASML 0.00%↑ is three times the company that SMCI 0.00%↑ is now. SMCI 0.00%↑ sure looks like a great company right now, okay?
Interesting, interesting.
So, that's what's going on, okay, guys?
Chill and relax, chill and relax, and then we see, then we see.
Okay, let's get started. 2/15.
Hope everybody had a good Valentine's Day. Hope you didn't get into too much trouble. There you go, there you go. Calculate 9 months from today; then we'll see if you guys had a good Valentine's Day. That's what we know.
Good morning, good morning, everybody. SPX moving a little bit, moving a little bit. Not too bad. Okay, does it get through 5,000? Maybe. They're up to 17. Sure looks pretty strong right now, okay? What is SPX? I don't even see SPX. Hold on. NASDAQ implied open plus 33. And who comes up with this ticker? I mean, the guys are just dumb. Why don't you put "steady" and keep it there? Okay, hold on. German DAX. Give me a second. There it is. SPX up 7. Yes. Okay. So, it puts it at 5009 5021. Okay. 5052 if PPI is out tomorrow. If that's low, I think you're going to get a rally of Ages.
And if AMAT 0.00%↑ is good between ASML 0.00%↑ and LRCX 0.00%↑ and AMAT 0.00%↑ and all the chips going, and you get a low PPI, I think everything rips, okay?
That's what we know. That's what we know. That's what we know.
Okay, downside 4952.
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