Daily Plan 02.08.24
Good morning, everyone.
Stocks go up, stocks go down, week after week, great, great, great.
And as long as it's happening, then we see.
GUYS MY BIRTHDAY IS HERE!!! WOW SPY 0.00%↑ 500. Beautiful gift. AYNI. Today will be the last day we are running this yearly discount so please consider becoming a paid subscriber if you enjoy my research and homework.
Okay, so, ARM 0.00%↑ stunning earnings, but if you do the math, even say 35 cents, that's $70 $1.50, 60, 70 PE. Very high. Does it hold? Don't know, but there's no pin action off of it.
AVGO 0.00%↑ looks a little bit better.
NVDA 0.00%↑ was up to 706, then 709, looks really, really good. 709 looks really, really hard.
SMCI 0.00%↑ looks like it's had its move and maybe it sits here and goes up or down 40 or 50 for the next six weeks and charges you eight, you know, 10-15 dollars 80 points up and it doesn't move. I mean, 80 points up and you lose money every day.
Okay, so just understand that.
Look, we had a fantastic run. Everything ran.
You have to sell stuff. You have to go slow.
And, you know, I'm just going to say this: don't, if you make 10 and 20 grand off of a trade and you're not happy and you put it all back in, you're going to get screwed and you're going to go to zero. Okay? I mean, buying 10 contracts and rolling up to 50 contracts is kind of stupid. It's just stupid. Okay? Don't do it. Don't do it.
And don't think you're going to buy things 50 and 100 points up. They don't move! Look at ASML 0.00%↑ . We got into these 930s and we sold them. People are selling me three messages yesterday said, "Sam, why are you selling them?" I'm going because I'm up a buck and a half. Where's it going to go? Is it going to go up 20 points in the next two days? It would have to go up 20 points in the next two days. It doesn't happen. They're charging you too much for premiums.
So, if it's okay to buy them, but you've got to sell them. You've got to sell them if you pay too much. Okay? Don't do that.
We bought Meta yesterday at 150. They went to six. They went to six. You could have sold them and rolled up. Don't do that. Okay? And how do I know people are doing that? Because, think about it. We get like two cancels yesterday. We haven't had cancels in forever. You get two cancels. I call them up. "Well, Sam, I was up 40 grand last week and now I gave it all back." I said, "It's Wednesday. You gave it back in three days." Yeah. And why? What are you doing? What are you doing?
Don't do this. I said, "What are you doing? I told you to take half or two-thirds or 3/4ths of it out. Yeah, I know, but I don't want to move money. I don't want to move money. I said, "But if it's there, you're going to spend it. I know who you are. I know because I was there. I was you. If my account has five grand, I'm spending five grand. If it has 100,000, I'm spending 100,000." And then the comments. Guys, the comments.
SMCI 0.00%↑ is down 10. It's up 400 points. It can go down 80 and still be okay. It can go down 150 and still be okay. Just because it's down 10 doesn't mean you buy calls...
Okay? Chill and wait. Chill and wait.
Yesterday, on ARM SNOW 0.00%↑ was at 223. it was at 223 at 5am this morning.
META 0.00%↑ , if it can get through 472, it can run huge. Okay?
AVGO 0.00%↑ , the other day, spiked at 1276 and dropped 60. It drops 60. Okay? Let's see how it does. Maybe it pops. Maybe it doesn't. If it pops, you're going to get 10 for those 1280s right off the bat. And then it may go to zero or maybe it keeps going. I don't know.
But there's natural sellers at 5,000 on SPX. That's the issue. Nothing else is the issue.
If we weren't at 5,000, if we were at 4,800, we would be up 50 handles today. But there's natural sellers.
Now, tomorrow, you have a revision of the CPI coming. If that revision stays the same or goes lower, then I think you're going to blow through 5,050. If that revision is way higher, so let's say, I don't know what it was last time, say it was 2.8, whatever, 2.9, and it goes to 4% on the revision, we're going to be down 100 points tomorrow. So there's an opportunity. Be down. If the revision is bad. I don't think that's going to happen, but it's possible. But if it's possible, you have to plan for it. Okay? So just understand that.
ZScaler, we bought ZS 0.00%↑ last week because we knew FTNT 0.00%↑ was having earnings, and we said if the other three are good at one time, this has to be good. So it was good that it took ZScaler up, but it took it up instead from 244 all the way to 231, and that's why I didn't get there. That's okay. Okay.
Another guy bought ENPH 0.00%↑ . He said, "Sam, it went way down." Yeah, so what? META 0.00%↑ went way up. We did two plays right off the bat. Enphase went from $1.20 to 50 cents, and Meta went from $1.50 to $6. But the only reason anybody is ever upset ever is if you buy too much and you lie to yourself. Okay?
There used to be a movie, "Liar, Liar." Did you ever see it? Jim Carrey, he kicks his own ass. You should do that if you're lying to something. Okay?
Because on anything that we talk about, it can go. I mean, let me tell you, ARM 0.00%↑ is way up right now. Okay? It's at 98. It may hit 91 within a minute and go to 84. It may go to 84 right away. So if you have the 80 calls and you get four instead of getting 20, whose fault is it if you're going to get scared out of it? That means you bought too much. Don't do this. Don't do this.
NET 0.00%↑ reports tonight. That's CloudFlare. That's going to move ZScaler. PANW 0.00%↑ again for tomorrow. And then we see.
But everything is doing well. It's doing really, really well.
But I don't like the fact that Snowflake is down five from where it was last night and this morning.
And the other one, LRCX 0.00%↑ , should be flying now. Think of what ARM said. They said auto is good. They licensed stuff. They said auto is good. Everybody that's an auto said it's bad. But that means people are licensing their tech. It doesn't matter if you use it. If you license for a million smartphones and you only sell 500,000, you're licensed. I mean, look, I pay for a thousand seats on GoToMeeting. We don't always use them. Okay? Doesn't mean that they're not getting paid for a thousand. Their business is fine because I'm paying them for it. So that's about ARM. Okay? So understand that.
Now, ARM 0.00%↑ says cell phones look even better for next quarter. That means AAPL 0.00%↑ . Then we see. Then we see. Then we see. Okay?
News is news.
Usually, you get huge pin action off of this. ARM, you would have thought NVDA 0.00%↑ would be 709, and SMCI 0.00%↑ would be at 700 and trying to break up. But it's not. So that's okay. So just wait and see and relax.
Another great week. When it's a great week, don't give it back.
If you are posting in the room that, "Oh my God, this came down," that means you bought too much. And nobody wants to hear that. Okay? Nobody wants to hear that. You keep lying to yourself. Okay? Don't do that. Don't do that.
LLY 0.00%↑ got an upgrade to 850. If it takes out 752, it can go. It looks like Cramer was saying they may get an approval in the next two weeks, if it does, it's 800. I don't know if it's going to happen. Then we see. Then we see. Then we see. Okay?
But the CPI revision tomorrow is very important. Usually, it's not. These numbers are not revised very much. But if for some reason, it's revised lower, you will blow through 5,050. And if it's revised way higher, you'll probably go to 4,900. Okay? That's a long way. So just keep that in mind. That's out there.
And AVGO 0.00%↑ is going to try to gap, and they may gap this 1280 right away. If it does, you're going to get $16 for those. And then if it fails, they're going to go to two again. Don't do that. Don't do that. Don't do that. Okay?
Let's get started.
Good morning, good morning, everybody. 2/8
SPX down, what, 10, something like that. Let me look. 750. That puts it at 4,997, 4,987, 4,981, 4,952, 5,009, 5,031.
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