Daily Plan 01.31.24
MSFT 0.00%↑ news is very, very good. The news is good. He guided up. He said deployment is good, but it's up a lot. It's a 32 P/E stock. It's higher than everything else. That's why it's going down, but it could probably, if the market were to rip and Powell is good, it can go to 416. Underneath, 393, big, big number.
AMD 0.00%↑ a little bit better. They guided up from $2B to $3.5B by the end of the year, so that's better, but not today, but better over the longer term. Would probably think in four to six weeks, this is $190+. Okay, does it squeeze today? Possible to squeeze, then we see, then we see, then we see.
The ones that aren't moving yet that should be moving, SNOW 0.00%↑ should be moving. It should be positive. It should be $210. Okay, DDOG 0.00%↑ should be way up. The cloud numbers were fantastic for MSFT 0.00%↑ and GOOGL 0.00%↑ to make more money in the cloud. That means somebody has to be paying them. So is Snowflake paying them? DataDog paying them? MDB 0.00%↑ , etc. So that means that has to be better.
ADBE 0.00%↑ trying to get through. If it can get through 636, it's a beast number. Then we see, then it can really take off.
ASML 0.00%↑ and LRCX 0.00%↑ , these are funny. Lam Research is funny, it goes to $900, it goes to $870, goes to $900 again, and then it goes to $820, down $80. They don't understand.
SMCI 0.00%↑ , epic, epic, epic numbers. They're just taking profit, guys. Okay, so but this is what you've got to do. So think about this:
Sam starts with 150K, gets it to a million, million one, starts taking some shots, gets it to 2, and then it dropped a little bit. So we close the week at like 1.8, ish, yesterday we caught Adobe right off the bat, or I mean two days ago, caught Adobe rght off the bat, and we're sitting with like about 200, 230 in the market. So you subtract that from 1.8, and you're, you're at 1.6. If everything goes to shit, your month is 150 to 1.6, it's pretty good. You have to chill. You have to buy less.
And you don't just go crazy because let me tell you, I went crazy in this 2001, and I've learned, you know, and then I was traveling yesterday, people are sending me messages, direct messages. Sam, you're not doing any trade. I'm like, I'm about to go on a plane, and just like I thought because look, Sam doesn't trust anybody. He doesn't even trust technology. I mean, I'm the guy at home that has three different internet providers. So, you know, and I pay like 60 or 70 bucks for each of them. One of them I haven't logged on to in five years, and I keep paying them $60 a month. Okay, just because if something happens and you don't have internet, you get destroyed. So you just do that.
So yesterday on the plane, I knew, I knew. I mean, we went there, and they said, well, we need to reset it. They reset it three times. It wouldn't come on. Okay, it took an hour. It took an hour. That's technology. That's the technology you live with. Nobody pays for backups. These guys don't do that. They don't care.
Think about the power in Texas. You have an ice storm two years later. They haven't fixed it. They haven't spent a dollar. You get another ice storm. Nobody has power for three days again. Okay, so just understand that that's what these guys do. Don't trust your technology. Don't trust this. Don't trust that.
Then we see. Then we see. Then we see.
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Okay, so right now, you want to see what you want to see is Powell. And ADP was low.
Okay, so I actually think Powell is going to tell you there's no more hikes coming. We're going to start a cutting cycle, and it's going to come pretty soon. He needs to get jobs himself better, and if he does, things are going to get better. Okay, so just understand that.
I mean, so you have to chill and wait. Chill and wait.
Now, if he does that, we reverse up today and go to 4950. Okay, so just kind of sitting here chilling, waiting. Okay, but the techs are fine. Think about the stuff that they're doing.
Okay, I mean, this is simple logic. It's not complex. SMCI 0.00%↑ is selling a ton of boxes, but now you find out that AMD 0.00%↑ barely sold any. So that means who's selling them all? That means NVDA 0.00%↑ , Jensen is off looking for more capacity. Why are you trying to get more capacity if you don't have orders in one quarter or two quarters, really? Why? Because you do!
Okay, I mean, think about it.
I mean, LRCX 0.00%↑ is going to go to a thousand. It may not go to a thousand today, and it's not going to go to a thousand tomorrow, and it may not go there for three months, but it's going to go there. Okay, over time.
Banks, GS 0.00%↑ looks better finally. Can it get over 392? Probably has a bee line to 400. Now, if Powell comes out and he actually says we're going to start a cutting process, and they lower rates, and the rates TNX, TLT 0.00%↑ start going lower, then Goldman Sachs is going to hit 400.
Okay, but what you want to see today is you want to see the clouds get better.
I mean, SNOW 0.00%↑ should be positive. I mean, its down five. It may go positive in the first five minutes.
BIIB 0.00%↑ , Biogen, they have an Alzheimer's drug, and they stopped the Alzheimer's drug. They said they're not going to do it anymore. It doesn't look prosperous. So that means that there's two other ones. Biogen has another one, but then LLY 0.00%↑ has one. So Lily is up, and it's trying to break through the high. Okay, now, if you look at NVO 0.00%↑. Novanordisk, this is interesting. So they beat. They beat by, I don't know, five cents or eight cents. Think, think about this. This real BS within stocks
I mean, this is stocks. This, this is the first thing you have to work. Okay, when MSFT 0.00%↑ beats, or NVDA 0.00%↑ beats, SMCI 0.00%↑ beats by a dollar and guides up by three billion. NVO 0.00%↑ beats by ten cents. .10. They made an extra thirty, forty million. Really? Oh my God, this is such a great shock. They made an extra thirty million. Interesting, right? Oh, but Nvidia made an extra six billion in sale. Okay, so, so just understand this.
Now, LLY 0.00%↑ may break up here and rocket, but Lily is not Nvidia. Novonordisk is not Nvidia. And let me tell you, the reality of the, this GL1 drugs, they all want to raise prices till they can, right? But I'm not so sure if they cut prices in half, if they have the capacity, they don't have capacity yet. If they cut prices in half, if everybody in the world starts taking it. They make more money…they make more money. Don't know, okay?
So that's what we know, okay?
Let's get started.
d morning, good morning, everybody.
SPX was down twenty. It is down twenty, okay? So that puts it, it right near 4900. I actually like the 4930. Uh, if it, if it, if it starts to go, maybe we rip, uh, right back up. What just happened here? Something come out. SPX just popped.
Uh, comments, questions, hold on. People feeding me news.
Okay. Uh, nothing, yeah, but SPX just popped. I mean, and there's no real reason for the market to be down.
Think about it. MSFT 0.00%↑ , great numbers. Guide up. Everything's perfect. AMD 0.00%↑ , just fine. We knew they weren't going to sell a lot because they didn't say they were going to sell a lot. But they're going to next year, you know. And GOOGL 0.00%↑ , Google is shit. We know that. I mean, they, they've been for a long time. They don't care. It's okay. It goes up slow. It's not on our list. We barely look at it.
Okay, ADBE 0.00%↑ just popped. ASML 0.00%↑ just popped. Okay. LRCX 0.00%↑ , man, why is it not up forty today? Really interesting. Okay. Hold on. Uh, fourth quarter employment cost index. Yeah, all meaningless. Okay. Uh, so that's what we know. Uh, PO, all about PO. And then it's the press conference. So that's what it's about today.
SPX, 4952. 4971. Uh, 5,000 underneath. 4891. 4852.
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