Daily Plan 01.19.24
Good Morning Traders-
Stocks go up, stocks go down.
Then we see, then we see.
My aim is to share out of the box research and find out of the box themes and trends which may be impacting risk flows. If you want to learn more about this and visualize the market from a different angle than just chart based "head and shoulders" then subscribe and share below.
UNBELIEVABLE. I have told you this before. YOU DON’T SELL STUFF AT .05 CENTS. It’s just dumb. Now you can if you’re way OTM and say you have the 370s and 350s. You can sell the 370s at .05 and buy the 350s at .05 cents so it doesn’t cost you anything. BUT you never sell it. Because things like SMCI 0.00%↑ happen. They just do.
And it happened to me many many years ago. I learned my lesson. I lost like $30-$40K. I didn’t lose it, but I didn’t make it. Right? But, you never forget that. You just DON’T.
SPX continues to go higher. So what does the news mean? SMCI 0.00%↑ guiding up. The news means that if Super Micro is building more computers that means they have a demand for more. But last quarter they guided down because they couldn’t get enough chips. They said they couldn’t make more computers. So that means NVDA 0.00%↑ is selling more chips or AMD 0.00%↑ is selling more chips. That’s it. Take your pick. One of those two is selling more chips.
Things I'm hearing on Nvidia is their revenue is going to double again next year from this year. Jesus, I mean all these people that think that it wasn't going to go, they're getting butchered. That would take NVDA 0.00%↑ somewhere in the $680 to $700 range. Wow, maybe, maybe not, don't know.
Okay, but what a start to the year. SMCI 0.00%↑, wow, we caught it before at 316, went to 357. This 357 is very hard. If it gets through 357 today, it can go all the way to 372 391. I don't know if it's going to get there. 350 right there, round number, maybe, maybe not. Let's see, let's see, let's see. Okay, but what a stunning move.
MSFT 0.00%↑ trying to break up. It was at 398; it's down a buck.
TSLA 0.00%↑ going lower. I keep telling you, Tesla, why are you guys so hung up on Tesla? There's nothing good going on with Tesla. There's nothing good going on. How is he going to raise margins when he's giving people raises and the parts cost more? Just, you know, it's a play of the downside.
We got Lam Research. If you're building more computers, you need more memory, but Taiwan Semi already told you that. I mean, the LRCX 0.00%↑ calls are insane. Yesterday, you know, it opens at 770. At the money, they're 12. The 800s are two. Now it's at 800. So here's the thing, does it get through 800 today? I don't know if it does. Probably goes to 809, 820, and sure looks like 870 coming on earnings.
AMD 0.00%↑ , we had AMDs at what, 60 cents? We sold them at $3.50, huge position, took 70 grand on it, didn't roll up, and now it's back up again. But we rolled to next week. Next week's not next week, two weeks, three weeks out. Okay, very interesting.
I keep telling you on Bitcoin and COIN 0.00%↑. Look, unless Bitcoin goes up, these things aren't going up. And Coinbase isn't going up anyway. COIN 0.00%↑ probably has earnings, goes to 90. Okay, but people are stubborn. And instead of playing stuff that's moving, they go play stubborn stuff. You can't do that.
CRWD 0.00%↑ tried to break down on Wednesday. CrowdStrike, PANW 0.00%↑, and ZS 0.00%↑ tried to break down, and then right back up tells you how strong they are.
SNOW 0.00%↑ still not way up there at 203. They would have to guide up. Do they? I don't know.
ADBE 0.00%↑, why? If all these things are doing great and NVDA 0.00%↑ is at its high, Cloud demand is at its high, Microsoft is at its high, AVGO 0.00%↑ is at its high. Adobe, which had earnings, is 40 points underneath. So if and when it gets to 603, it's probably going to go to 612 that same day.
LLY 0.00%↑, price hike yesterday. You're going to do well on these. 562.50 is probably going to be five, six bucks. Probably sell them at open and then we see. Then we see. Then we see.
Okay, look, when you have a price hike and they take things down, these things, that's a gift. It's a gift. Okay, interesting, interesting, interesting. And then we see.
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NVDA 0.00%↑. If you buy Nvidia every day now for the last two weeks, every single day it opens up five, six, seven points. Every single day. Isn't that interesting? So I remember a time when AAPL 0.00%↑, pre-split, way up there, 400, 500, whatever it was. It would open up 10 points every day for like two months. It opened up every day, 10 points. You sell it right at the open. You buy it at the close, sell it at the open every single day. You'd make a dollar or two every single day. And people would come out. Every chart would, and these guys on Twitter, just really stupid people would say, 'Oh, this is overbought. Who cares? It's overbought. How is Nvidia overbought?' They're saying RSI 70. It's overbought. What is the RSI, relative strength? Why is that accurate? It's not accurate. It's 50-year-old terminology.
If Nvidia guides up, I mean, did you see what Zuckerberg said? He's going to have half a million HH100s. I don't. So let's just go do the math here. 500,000. Can't do it in my head today. I'm doing too much. Done. 40,000. It's $20 billion. He has 2 billion in chips. One company has 2 billion in chips. And he bought them from Nvidia. If he does it again next year, Nvidia probably gonna be at 20 PE. So how is it overbought? It doesn't matter. Guys, these things that people are teaching you, except Sam, are just stupid. I mean, there's some really smart guys on Twitter that for the last two plus years have turned into absolute idiots. Oh my God, the curve is inverted. We're coming into a recession. What if the curve un-inverts in the next month and you get no recession and you get huge growth and inflation comes down? You're going to say I'm wrong. And then four, three, four years later, you're going to get inverted. Everything they're going to say, 'Oh my God, recession,' because they've been taught stuff that's ancient. Okay, go give your kid an iPhone one or iPhone two when he already knows how to use a 12 or 13 and he's going to break it or next day he's going to tell you he lost it.
Okay, nobody cares what you learned when you were young and everything else. Nobody cares that you use DOS or use slash CD, change directory or D directory. Nobody cares. So why do they care? 'Oh my God, you get a recession here.' 'Oh, this is overbought.' 'Oh, this.' Do you know on a two-year timespan, the SPX hasn't moved? How's it overbought on the two-year? It's not overbought. Very interesting, right? But the chips, it's called chippy day, chippy, chippy, come to papa. There's one for you. There'll be two more. But Lam Research looks like it's going to rip, Nvidia looks like it's going to rip, Microsoft very nice should hit 400. The question is, does it hit 400 and drop eight or does it hit 400 and close at 403 and it's gone? Right?
So the implication that says SMCI 0.00%↑ , NVDA 0.00%↑ rips, AMD 0.00%↑ rips, AVGO 0.00%↑ rips, all the chips rip, all the cloud stocks go up, MDB 0.00%↑ , etc., etc. Nobody's buying MongoDB, guys. Don't get silly. Nobody's buying a company that's not accretive, that their stock will get slaughtered. Okay, what does accretive mean? It means that if you buy a company and they don't make any money, you dilute your stock and you don't get any earnings. That's what it means. It has to be accretive. It has to make some money so your earnings go up. Nobody's buying companies that are non-accretive.
Now, companies that are non-accretive themselves, then they would. But nobody else.
Okay, BA 0.00%↑, I don't know what's going on. Boeing plane is flying in the air on fire. Who knows what that is? I have no idea. But if that was a true video, and I don't know if it's true or not, why is Boeing not down 30? So I don't know, but I don't care because I only care that we destroy MSFT 0.00%↑ , two layers, and destroy NVDA 0.00%↑ , and destroy LRCX 0.00%↑ , and destroy LLY 0.00%↑ , and destroy AMD 0.00%↑ .
Are you smiling? LET THE AYNI FAMILY KNOW BELOW.
Okay, let's get started.
Good morning, good morning, everybody.
1/19 stocks go up, stocks go down.
SPX was up 28. It is up 25. That puts it at 4805. If it takes out 4821 with force, it can go to 4850 today. If it goes back under 4790, can probably go to 4770.
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