Good morning GM Traders -
WOW MONTH! WHAT A START TO THE YEAR!
NVDA 0.00%↑ is going nuts! Yesterday we went through how Nvidia is great. You could’ve bought the first one, the 500s, sold em. If you only bought the 520s at 1.50 and you just bought 10, that’s $1,500. If you just bought 5 that’s only $700. And if you just held those… they’re $35 x 5 contracts = $17,000 on $500 trade. But if you rolled up one after the other and the other. You did like us. You banked $200-$250. Very interesting right? And you did 5 trades. Rolled up rolled up rolled up = less risk. But if you just held the original one 200 contracts at $1.50 its $30K. If $30K was profit that we had last week and we held right now they would be 32 dollars or $640,000. From starting out with a $5K trade. This is trading. This is how it works. Interesting. Interesting. Interesting. Right?
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Crazy, crazy, crazy! You have the CPI coming up. If the CPI is 2.9 or less everything is going to run. If CPI comes in at 3.6, that’s bad. If it comes in less anywhere from 3.0-3.3 then probably were okay. But here is the reality of the situation, it doesn’t matter if the CPI is bad. So, things go done for a day 2,3,4 and then come back up. Because nothing is bad right? I mean that’s it! If nothing is bad, what’s bad here. I mean look at even crypto it’s starting to go. Crypto is going! And now COIN 0.00%↑ guys, just remember… you see all this craziness out there. I mean this guy, i think it was the GBTC guy who came on in CNBC. I mean he’s just talking stupid. I mean people inherently they talk their book. See this is why I’m different. And he just talks stupid. And I think CNBC said, “well your fees are triple everybody else’s you’re going to have to lower your fees, right?” and he goes, “no, we are the best.” Well, what the hell is the best? If you have a BlackRock ETF and a Fidelity ETF and all they buy is bitcoin and that’s all they have in it is just bitcoin, it is the exact same thing. What the hell is the difference?
If you can sell bitcoin on Coinbase or you can sell it on another exchange. You sell one bitcoin you can pay $20 or sell one bitcoin on Coinbase you pay $250. Let me tell you how screwed up COIN 0.00%↑ is guys. If you go use Coinbase Pro, and you sell one bitcoin, and say you have 2 computers and hit enter at the exact same second. In Coinbase he will charge you $200-$300 for commission. You go use Coinbase Pro, which is Coinbase, you can have an account in both places. ITS THE SAME COMPANY! He’s going to charge you $80-$90 dollars. He’s going to charge you 1/3 of commission. Okay?
Very simple, this guy is not even going to be in business, so GBTC is going to go away. His whole thing is going to go away, or he has to go to no commissions. Now, if you remember Merrill Lynch when I was a kid, way back when, I went to a Merrill Lynch office and my dad's buying some stock. He buys 100 shares, and it cost him like $200, $100-$200 to buy 100 shares of stock. Now, this is back when he's making 20 grand, 21 grand. He's paying $100 to buy some stock. Fast forward 30 years later, all the stocks went to like $5 to buy, and then they went to zero. So now you buy stock for zero, they take your account, they take your money. Fidelity takes your money. They pay you 4%, they make 5%, they make a percent on your money. Other places don't pay you any interest, and they take your money.
Well, that doesn't work in the world of ETFs because they take your money in your account, and they have to go have X amount of crypto that they have to buy. So that doesn't work. Their account now, they think, 'Oh, if COIN 0.00%↑ is going to do this, he's just going to keep it in cash. We're going to use his cash.' What if they're going to use your cash? Okay, so just understand this: all these people's commissions are going to go to zero. They're going to go to zero. Crypto commissions will go to zero, just like stock commissions. Not today, not tomorrow, not in a year. Over time, as soon as one company comes out and says, 'Fidelity comes out and says you can buy crypto for free,' everybody has to go to free. Why are you going to go to a different place? It doesn't make any sense, guys. Okay, so that's Coinbase. Their business is going to go to shit. Now, it doesn't mean the stock doesn't go to 200 or 300 in a year or two, and then it goes to shit in five years.
I think we're going to be okay on this CPI. Let's see. I don't think it's bad, that bad. And then we see. Then we see. Then we see. Hold on a second. I'm going to log in. Just got back to the desk, doing my rant while I'm making coffee. Give me a second. Come on. So that's what we know.
How about this? BA 0.00%↑ . Some guy came on today and said, 'Boeing, it's just not going to go up for a long time.' I agree. So, here's the thing. They're trying to get you out of stuff. All these people. You know, there's some people on Twitter that were complaining that they're following people that are making them do bad stuff. Well, people don't make you do anything. If you follow stupid, you get stupid. If you're a short and every single day you tweet, 'Markets going to crash, markets going to crash, this is bad. You're going to get screwed.' Every single day, and somebody follows you and they hear that, it's in the back of their mind. I keep telling you that. I keep telling you this. One of the things that I told people way back when, and I still do, if you make any comment in my chat room, it's in your subconscious, and you will trade on that. If you said, 'Oh my God, we're going to crash,' as soon as something goes down, NVDA 0.00%↑ goes down from, what, two days ago? It got to what? 532. And people said, 'Oh my God, it's going to collapse.' So, they sold. Now they missed 18 points. Okay. So don't do that. Don't do that.
SPX up eight. It's trying to go. It's really that simple. How about SMCI 0.00%↑ ? Yesterday, I told you. I mean, this is TRADING101. I said it's going to hit 356-357. It's going to go down 20. It dropped 20. It dropped 20. Exactly. And we sold them. We sold them. How perfect was that? Questions on trading execution? Please feel free to comment below and ask away with any questions.
Now today, if the CPI is good, CAT 0.00%↑ should run. UPST 0.00%↑ should run. AFRM 0.00%↑ should run. GS 0.00%↑ should run. And if it's bad, they're all going to go lower. And how about MSFT 0.00%↑ ? It's finally breaking up. And you have two days. If Microsoft can get to 391 today, it can get to 400. But we need a good CPI. So, let's see what's going to happen here. Let's see what's going to happen.
The 4535 puts right now are only $1. That's $50 down. That's not bad. If we were going to completely collapse on a bad CPI, they can go to 35, 1 to 35. But then we see. Then we see. Then we see.
SPY 0.00%↑ moving up a little bit. Nobody's scared. What are they scared of? What are you scared of? So, if it's a bad number, comes back in a week, a week and a half, we made our money, right? You make your money, you sell, you roll. That's trading. That's trading. That's trading. MSTR 0.00%↑ , does it go? In theory, it should go. NFLX 0.00%↑ , they got 8 million new accounts. I don't know how many they're expecting. I already told you that on Crypto Next ETH. Well, .3% is 3.6, but we knew that. That's not that bad. Okay. Those are, I mean, SPX is down four. NVDA 0.00%↑ dropped three. Oh, zero. Okay. It's not that big a deal. Maybe it goes down a little bit and comes back. I don't think that's a big a deal. Let's see what happens. Okay. Uh, it isn't the huge ripper, but it's not bad. If we go back positive, do we crater? Maybe, maybe not. But it's market can't crater if Nvidia is good. Okay. You can't crater if it's Nvidia good and Microsoft's good. Then we see. Then we see. Then we see.
Those SPX 4735s, we didn't get them. Now SPX is up 10. They're only .50 cents. So he doesn't believe we're down 50. Okay. So that's what we know. That's what we know.
Okay. Let's get started.
Good morning. Good morning, everybody.
January 11th, January 11th.
SPX 4792, 4820. Lower 4751.
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