Daily Plan 01.05.24
Okay, good morning, good morning, morning.
Stocks go up, stocks go down.
Then we see, then we see, then we see.
Interesting, interesting.
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We broke 4700 late yesterday; it couldn't hold the 20 up. Market can't seem to hold. We got the jobs. I think if it comes in at 160 or 158, I'm thinking somewhere around there. It's a Goldilocks number, and we rock it. If it comes in at 200, we probably dive, even though we shouldn't. If it comes in at 100, they'll start talking recession. Now who knows? I don't know. But here's the thing, this is how you play the game, and I'm going to repeat this so you guys get smarter.
You start the week slow with SPXs. You buy small SPX, and you buy some COIN 0.00%↑ puts. If COIN 0.00%↑ goes up, you make 15K. You subtract five for the SPX loss; you're up 10. Then you buy some LLY 0.00%↑ , and you make 27K. You sell it, and you bought some SPXs, and you bought some LRCX 0.00%↑ , and you bought some other stuff. So you're down 12K, so you're up 15 plus the 10; you're up 25. Your BA 0.00%↑ goes to shit, so you lost 10. So you're up 15 again. Right? You buy some more SPXs for yesterday, and you're down another five. So you're up 10. But then you have SMCI 0.00%↑ , so you sell those. So you're now back up 20. Right? And you bought some LRCX 0.00%↑ , which was up a triple, but you didn't take it because you didn't buy enough.
See the problem is when you don't buy enough, you don't sell it. You just buy 10 or 15 or 20. It's only a thousand bucks; you don't sell it. So you're net net positive for the week. Okay? You're not up 30, 40, 50, 80 grand, but you're positive 10 plus grand. And that's it. You just chill and wait, chill and wait, and chill and wait.
Now you don't count the COIN 0.00%↑ 120s or you would be just up a little bit. Okay? So that's how it works. That's how it works.
Questions for today:
All these ETFs are saying they're going to do it, but would they ever do that during market hours? Guys, don't. I tell you all the time. I don't trust anybody, anybody on anything. Somebody puts news out there; go look. Yesterday ETF saying ETF got approved; it didn't get approved, just somebody else. They approved the application. I mean, look, if the ETF is approved, Bitcoin is going to go to 45-50,000 right away in minutes. At least a few trades would take it to 50,000. If it doesn't, then it's probably not approved.
And if it doesn't or if it does, what happens to COIN 0.00%↑ ?
Does it collapse? I told you this. Let's say Bitcoin's worth a trillion. I don't think it is, but say it's worth a trillion. What are they going to get? They're not. Nobody's paying them 1%. If they're paying 1%, they still don't make enough revenue to be worth where it is. Nobody's paying a 1% to be a custodian. Who the hell is doing that? I mean, they're lucky if they get, I don't know, maintenance fee of $20 in an account from whoever's doing it. That's it. So grossly overvalued, okay? And then we see, then we see, then we see. Now, does it collapse? I don't know. Does it rocket? I don't know. So, we're in it for the upside and downside, and that'll take us probably about to even. So, not a bad week.
All you have to do is hold LLY 0.00%↑ . We sold LLY 0.00%↑ and made 27K. If we held LLY 0.00%↑ , okay, we'd be way, way, way, way, way up, right? Be way, way, way, way up because they went to 17. And why did Sam buy 100? Why did Sam buy 100? Come on, guys, of LLY 0.00%↑ , while he's buying small in everything else? Why did he say, "I'm buying a 100"? Gotta know this, gotta know this, gotta know this. Come on, guys, you know this. Somebody knows this. At least one person knows that because you had a beast number. 603.
And because if you wait, if you guys got to learn my analogy of you sit next to the hot girl, if the hot girl finally talks to you, do you not? Are you not happy? And you buying into that. It finally hits 603. So, what are you gonna do if Nvidia goes to break 703? I mean, 503. People are going to say, "Well, I'm going to buy one contract, say finally got this 505-503." That's when you wait. That's when you go.
Okay, once again, let's go over the three other things. Because jobs reports coming here. MSFT 0.00%↑ has to give co-pilot numbers, okay? AMD 0.00%↑ has to say how their chip is selling. Okay? And then, if and when NVDA 0.00%↑ breaks 503, Nvidia's got a monster upgrade this morning. I mean, really, really, really huge upgrade.
Was not fast enough on LLY 0.00%↑ . Absolutely not fast enough. But here's the thing. It doesn't matter if you're fast enough and you're slow. That's okay. You still gotta get in. You don't just give up on it. Can't give up on it.
Now, today, very different. If LLY 0.00%↑ breaks 603 to the downside, last time it hit 621, and it broke 600 for the next nine, 10 weeks. For two, three weeks, it tried to get back up, but then for 10 weeks, it didn't move up. Didn't move up. And it's not a game-changer. Everybody thinks this news on Lily is a game-changer. They didn't lower the price, guys. People are lying to you. If they were charging $1,000, the middleman was getting, say, 250. So now they cut out the middleman, and they're going to charge 750. Do you see what I'm saying? So they're still only getting 750. They're not getting any more money. So for them, they're just trying to create this new vision.
Okay, here comes the jobs.
Guys, let's see what happens. We bought some puts just in case, just to have them. You gotta have them. I mean, you're not buying a lot; you're just buying some.
Okay, let's see what happens here. I mean, think about this. LRCX 0.00%↑ way up today, but SMCI 0.00%↑ up with it too. It may hit 300 really, really, really, really fast.
Okay, here they let's go stronger than expected at 26,000. Wow, 216k. That means definitely no recession. That means rates will pop higher.
Okay, they're going to say no cuts. This isn't necessarily bad, but rates will go up. They may take the market down.
NVDA 0.00%↑ went down on this because they're going to say back to where we were.
Okay, interesting, interesting, interesting. The SPX is going lower with those up to two bucks. Uh, we may take three on those and then get back in.
Okay, that's what we know. Okay, so let's see what happens. Let's see what happens.
This is not bad news; it's not great news. It's not Goldilocks, but it's not bad news.
DAILY OPTIONS TRADING BULL/BEAR PIVOT POINTS
Okay, you got SPX 4682, 4661, 4630 needs to get through 4718. Okay, 4718 then 4752 upside.
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