An Open Letter to the FED: Unpacking the Real Causes of Inflation

YOU ARE THE INFLATION

Joeseph Stiglitz, Nobel prize-winning economist, has recently said that some of the inflation we are seeing is being caused by the FED which in turn is causing distortion.

Distortion is not normal behavior. Not normal behavior will cause more unintended consequences. Unfortunately many PHD economists, pundits, and plain ol’ talking heads will start to debate me and we even have the people in charge of all this monetary policy disagreeing with each other where one FED head says they still see a rate cut & then you have the opposite spectrum of Neil Kashkari saying there not even tight on policy yet 🤦‍♂️ (btw - a mathematical fact; we have had the longest inverted yield curve in recorded HISTORY, an inverted yield curve is the literal mathematical expression of being too tight 🤦‍♂️, but I digress)

Here’s the distortion. We have all been taught to have the wrong conversation and reaction function. We see “hotter” inflation report and like monkeys go “higher for longer, higher for longer 🙉”. What if we have had the wrong medicine for the wrong diagnosis? 🤯

I can prove it all factually. First of all, you can chose to believe this part or not I still will prove my case. My background is that I have forced myself from severe trauma in my life to read a library full of books on economic policy. My personal desire and fire under if not 100 times more for sure 10 times more was my inspiring dedication to out work any college student with their college lives. I barely slept for two decades & while everyone enjoyed themselves I worked and then studied and then worked and studied some more.

So I promise you I know this info like Good Will Hunting knows math. We had a supply-side shock while throwing helicopter money on it, the end, period, not debatable thats was caused our inflation then we had the movie “The Perfect Storm” with George Clooney where a rare a event of already each individual messed up terrible storm, but when all three come together it forms a monster of a storm -the perfect storm

Well, we got “The Perfect Inflation” where everything I mentioned above from COVID supply side shock, & the money given around that, combined itself with an Invasion of Ukraine by Russia - where one of the largest oil producers invaded the country that’s the largest grain producer. Those storms added to our oil problems and agriculture globally

The 3rd storm that came that is making our inflation “Sticky” is the fire department we called in to save us themselves. It sounds ironic but much of life works in a way where often rushing to solve a problem can often make it worse

Let’s unpack this simply. I owned and operated many restaurants, catering businesses, and nightclubs. I tell you from factual experience low oil = low gas ( we do have a refining problem on this country where we could have cheaper gas even with the actual barrel of oil higher - but there’s political reasons there unfortunately), that low gas immediately is noticed in EVERY good from your tomatoes, to plates and cups, to uniforms, etc etc…then that establishment fluctuates its prices basically from the vendors. I worked with SYSCO SYY 0.00%↑ which is publicly traded & basically does 60% of all the establishments in this country and they would have a line item simply called: “transportation cost” and that would feed into every single thing we did. You see, not the FED, but the government could solve a lot of the inflation just with ENERGY

So two things were causing all the INFLATION most people are crying about in those instagram videos. The reason groceries are high is because for a long period we shut the entire country down from the pandemic, so we had little to no workers at “ABC corporation” not making all the “widgets” our society needed all while given money to buy said “widgets”. That’s the main 1

The 2nd one is; we (our current government) simply decided that giving more money to everyone and even more while those balances are not met would help them to simply have more money if things cost more. Ironically stupid right, it what’s more stupid is actually something could have been done to offset this which is energy as just explained it’s in everyyyyyyyyyy single thing we do. When the FED talks about inflation ex food and energy this is those school books they were taught in the entire real, of the Phillips Curve and that’s the terrible danger here when u have a doctor whom u trust misdiagnosing you which comes with a terrible danger of prescribing the WRONG MEDICATION which has all sorts of unintended consequences.

There’s a domino effect here where the decisions by this administration to pour money on people when essentially we initially didn’t have enough “widgets” being made of everything so more supply would bring costs down, but we doubled down by not doing dozens of things that can bring oil, gas, energy down……….alllllll the while we have a hot war with one of the major oil producers in the country. Nowwww, there’s a lot of balls to keep track of in the air, so one other one is that when the current administration finally (which isn’t the best tool) did something - acted - is when they released the SPR (strategic petroleum reserve) cause they knew the following conundrum - they are the “environment party” so supporting oil, or pumping more oil, anything around that is very taboo for them. But they’re obviously conflicted cause someone with a brain there is telling them everything I’m telling you. So the mathematical fact is when they do the release of the SPR or forced oil to come down to $65 bucks a barrel. Ironically all the inflation reports were coming in good 🤔. When oil ticked back up those inflation readings got poor again 🤔

Ok ok, so going back again to the 2nd cause of inflation now that we have a firm grip on energy, and human bodies making enough widgets for the first cause. This main 2nd cause is the FED’s wrong medicine to the wrong diagnosis; I will prove it all. So we have

So again the 2nd main cause of inflation that YOUUUUU ALLL are experiencing is this wrong medicine for the wrong diagnosis. It all ties into each other. So as Oil rose again and PPI and CPI stayed elevated and sticky the FED started using their actual MAIN tool which is their MOUTH known as “jaw boning”. You see they got worried that financial conditions “loosened” because we as traders and investors started bidding up stocks thinking inflation was coming down and priced in all these rate cuts. Then our administration stopped the SPR and does nothing to change the dynamics of the energy market where they too could jaw bone to get oil down but don’t. So a few things happened, we got excited that inflation was coming down and I remind you it came down because workers went back to the factories and made more “widgets” again and because Oil finally cooled off after the initial shocks from the war of Russia and Ukraine - NOTHING TO DO WITH THE FED. Now this is the dangerous part, because Oil ticked back up, and the governments relentless spending on everything and things like California which is the the 3rd largest economy in the world not the country the world 🌎👀, gave everyone money for inflation 🤦‍♂️, raises the minimum wage everywhere, we had what’s called stickiness in services and wages, and actual elevation and stickiness in Mortgages/Rents, car payments which feeds into auto insurance, and those two components of rents and cars is TWO THIRDS of all our inflation.

Sooooooo, let’s see if you get it as I try to put the connective tissue together. All the stuff a regular person complained about at the grocery store which primarily is from transportation costs and enough human beings making the products, was then followed up to the same regular Joe with medicine to fix his/hers tears at the grocery store with making your mortgage/rent, car payment, credit card payments, and auto insurance higher! 🤦‍♂️

Great right 🤦‍♂️. People now screaming “I’ll pay more for eggs I’m sorry, just get my car payments, credit card payments, auto insurance or mortgage or rent normal again please!!!!!

We all as actual people know we would rather pay a little more for groceries than have had all this happen, we all spend more money on our rent and mortgage and car payments or credit card payments of course we do that’s where most of all our money goes

And this is why we can’t get this last bout of inflation down. How the fak can we when the “Reaction Function” is all wrong and the causation of the current inflation

I have more proof and then that’s a wrap on this long essay. The distortion

The distortion that I opened this letter up with, the same distortion that Nobel Laureate Joeseph Stiglitz mentioned recently from the FED’s policies. That distortion is showing up on our trading screens

CVNA 0.00%↑, Carvana. What a ride right 😝. You see, the FED has made car leases not mathematically doable for 90% of people and businesses. The math on the lease with interest rates 12-20% and knowing the residual value when rates come down or if the FED gets a recession done make mathematical sense on the other side of the equation, In fact, it makes more sense to buy for cash and when things normalize to sell & then take a lease, and difference in loss of deprecation is what it would have cost to have a semi-normal lease…..

Sooooo, a bunch of people are buying for cash instead of leasing, not normal behavior- distortion, well unfortunately most people don’t have the cash laying around to show up to Mercedes Benz and go that one right there with a bow on it please

Most people since forced to buy for cash cause those mathematical equations I speak of matter a lot when ur on tighter budgets which is MOST OF AMERICA, so unfortunately they’re not at the Porsche dealership….

Butttt their at fkng VENDING machines for used cars. This is why people are scratching their heads saying wait a second, u mean to tell me when the FED is slowing the economy and everyone is worried about hard landing or recession that people got sooooo much money their waisting it on vending machines with cars - that doesn’t even make sense. Well, it does when u understand this essay now. This distortive example is happening in many places

The worst one is housing. We are already under supplied for the GFC (great financial crisis) 2008. We have for the last decade built out too low of inventory and it’s coming home to roost now a decade later when we desperately want houses to come down in price

In normal economics books like the one’s on the Phillips Curve and basic supply-demand equations the FED wants you to lose ur job, or have less money that you can’t go buy a house and if more people get fakd like you, then enough of the fakd broke people should finally make houses come down 🤦‍♂️

But can that ECONOMICS BOOK play out the way these kids who never worked in the private sector and graduated from IVY league schools reading those books and first jobs were at the FED grasp the fact that developers for all these years were never incentivized to make enough houses for this country that’s not in the books. We are the best or at least one of the best countries in the world so we have a simple demand of other people in other countries wanting to come here. We have mass illegal migration which are human beings we have to care for and house, and then we have a HUGE demand NOT FACTORED by anyone at the FED and especially not in any of the books they read which is RICH PEOPLE DESPERATELY TRYING TO GET THEIR MONEY OUT OF THEIR COUNTRIES

In fact, we have a policy that many don’t know of which is we give access to Visa’s and citizenship when you buy property or invest in the country I believe the last threshold was a million bucks

Are you guys starting to feel it and get it? I know all these businesses like the air you breathe. It’s impossible to get what these BOOK READ FOOLS think and want

They are the cause of much of the inflation that has gone into multiple other sectors and sticky

And theyyyy the FED is NOTTTTT, I repeat not the cause of the inflation we have had come down

They are

The distortion

And just like from GFC, what we are doing to developers who are not doing or building any projects will have another decade-long adverse effect like last time. There’s enough rich people all over the world to keep bidding up our houses, we don’t have enough inventory as it is to go around. On the rental and lower-end housing side we don’t know when to place mass migration of people that we actually need as labor in this country it’s just all being handled FAKD UP

From real estate, to Carvana, to the actual pinch people feel as the original groceries are high now at WMT 0.00%↑ , AND their car payments AND rents AND mortgages AND auto insurance are all high. And that stress causes a reaction which is the distortive behavior, and that distortion will create unintended consequences not for now or when inflation comes down but for many years after

If the FED at the very least takes some of the unnecessary pressure they have created off, you would for example have let’s say car leases make a little more sense. So then all those people who bought too many used cars who were forced to behave such a way would then sell all those used cars back and get their 30k back and use a couple grand to do a lease. Then used car prices drop and AUTO INSURANCE DROPS. Auto insurance is high because the cost to fix or repair a car from an accident is more expensive cause we’re not making enough “widget” parts for cars (which actually requires the part maker to open another factory and they will not do that of the COST OF CAPITAL aka interest rates are too high, they especially don’t want to build into the FED causing a recession) and the insurance companies besides all that have to add a premium just for the high rate itself because their cost of capital is higher too

I can obviously go on and on and there’s a few other examples that if I got into the details it would make your head light on fire 🔥

That’s enough here for now. I have nothing to gain here and I’m very passionate about this because I know what this is doing and going to do to the lower-middle class of society.

We are also having country-wide gentrification as we squeeze out our own YOUNG AND UPCOMING couples of men and women who form house kids and have babies which is how humans and our entire society are fabricated on, we are squeezing our own young Americans out of the American dream with terrible Government policy coupled with terrible Monetary Policy that often is at odds with each other for their “independence” and your nightmare

As a general rule with nature, whenever u think ur God it tends to have unintended consequences or just be bad.

Like I said in the opening statement, a patient seeking help has some type of condition trying to make it better. We hope two things, to make it better, or to not make it worse. The danger is when u have those u trust, misdiagnose and then be so sure as to prescribe medicine then unfortunately where we are now is we made the patient worse. And as our current patient clearly in the most recent inflation reports has not been doing better right? And if u could imagine the danger as u start to realize as your reading this, that our trusted Doctor sees this and says we need to UP THE DOSAGE or in our case UP THE RATE HIKES, danger ⚠️ 🤦‍♂️🤦‍♂️🤦‍♂️🤦‍♂️🤦‍♂️🤦‍♂️🤦‍♂️🤦‍♂️🤦‍♂️🤦‍♂️🤦‍♂

Thanks for reading. Much love 💛🍌🍌🍌🍌